Economy US Manufacturing Could Need Up To 3.8 Million New Employees by 2033

[Rob Battisti]

I'm a little skeptical myself; we shall see (and relatively soon). My OP's often have huge walls of text about the topic - just wait for the 4th of July thread lol - but I'm holding off on giving any strong opinion here. It's a report that Deloitte and the Manufacturing Institute collaborated on.

Looking forward to it!

Overall, I just — I’ve read too much and learned too much to have the belief that our economy will even be recognizable over the next 15 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if bots actually account for close to 10-20% of all manufacturing jobs and 30-40% of white collar jobs are made redundant with AI.

Looking at things like bookkeeping, accounting, drivers — so much will be displaced.

 

[Lucas1980]

The irony considering your first post in this thread was about illegal immigrants. Lot of pots and kettles out there, lol.

You're Schtick has been old for a while as well..LOL

 

[emefer]

Oh yeah, I almost forgot about your love for the Mexicanos and their work ethic. A lot of them do break their fucking backs out there, doing essential work. They're alright you know, and there's some shared old west culture with rodeos and what not. I'm far less fond of US-born chicano subculture, at least the bullshit overt gangbanging aspects.

Let’s not forget our shared love for the accordion and polka

 

[dirtypablo]

The article is kind of confusing to be honest.

It’s not necessarily manufacturing jobs or blue collar that they say are going to be in demand alone but the digital white collar jobs IN the manufacturing industry like data scientists.

I completely disagree as these kinds of jobs will be less in demand in the next ten years as AI continues to eat into them.

Ai isn't eating into these jobs. Manufacturing systems are generally too complex and require too much cross domain knowledge and cooperation for AI to have a measurable impact. You ever see the machines used in semiconductor manufacturing? Several of my customers build either aspects of these systems or full tools, and none of them use AI in any meaningful way that would get rid of humans.

Here's an example of one of these types of machines. Take note of the amount of wiring and instrumentation shown towards the end of the video. Assembling these things requires highly skilled technicians, cutting and welding the frames and other structural components requires highly skilled machinists and designing them requires mechanical, electrical, controls and software engineering cooperation with science teams. AI may be used in end of line fabs for process optimization, but it's nowhere near being useful enough to have any real use in building a system like this. (I write software for similar types of systems)

 

[Fergelmince]

In the fall, I brought my students to an open house at a community college that specializes in manufacturing gigs.

That place was crawling with recruiters from companies I had never heard of.

One guy was a head hunter for a company that does "non destructive testing". When I asked what that entails, he mentioned that MIC companies will hire his organization to tinker around with vehicles being made to ensure they don't fall apart when in action.

I think about that guys company quite a bit over the issues Boeing is having. I hope he shows up again next school year.

That's interesting. What was the breakdown between females and males who went to the open house?

 

[nostradumbass]

Are these jobs to replace the Boeing parts that keep disintegrating in mid air?

 

[Fluffernutter]

That's interesting. What was the breakdown between females and males who went to the open house?

More boys than girls. Off the top of my head it was like 65/35

The year before, we took students to go to a community college that emphasizes health care jobs: nurses, dental hygiene, phlebotomy, etc. that time, there were more girls than boys in attendance

 

[Rob Battisti]

Ai isn't eating into these jobs. Manufacturing systems are generally too complex and require too much cross domain knowledge and cooperation for AI to have a measurable impact. You ever see the machines used in semiconductor manufacturing? Several of my customers build either aspects of these systems or full tools, and none of them use AI in any meaningful way that would get rid of humans.

Here's an example of one of these types of machines. Take note of the amount of wiring and instrumentation shown towards the end of the video. Assembling these things requires highly skilled technicians, cutting and welding the frames and other structural components requires highly skilled machinists and designing them requires mechanical, electrical, controls and software engineering cooperation with science teams. AI may be used in end of line fabs for process optimization, but it's nowhere near being useful enough to have any real use in building a system like this. (I write software for similar types of systems)

I’m not saying all jobs, I’m saying a good portion of them.

Do you code PLC? Controls engineering?

 

[Deorum]

Looking forward to it!

It's just a fun American self-congratulatory thread. You won't feel like you're taking crazy pills. USA greatness can be summed up by "pop culture" lol, I god damn near had a stroke. It isn't that pop culture can't be or hasn't been good at various points and eras, I just have a conservative boomer mentality about it -- and I'm a fucking millennial.

 

[Fedor>Cain]

Oh yeah, I almost forgot about your love for the Mexicanos and their work ethic. A lot of them do break their fucking backs out there, doing essential work. They're alright you know, and there's some shared old west culture with rodeos and what not. I'm far less fond of US-born chicano subculture, at least the bullshit overt gangbanging aspects.

You could say that about any culture.

White people got biker trash and redneck gangs like the Dixie Mafia.

Black people and Mexican people got the hood gangbanging in huge cities.

Italians, well, that speaks for itself considering they are the most famous gangs of all.

IRA for the Irish.

Asians definitely have organized crime.

Your complaint is honestly stupid as fuck lmao. "Gangbanging" comes from shit infrastructure and poverty.

The worst gang of all is probably the white cops lol. I take that back, actually. The worst gang in the country is probably fucking wall Street and white collar criminals with money.

 

[dirtypablo]

I’m not saying all jobs, I’m saying a good portion of them.

Do you code PLC? Controls engineering?

Gotcha, I kind of misread your post - I agree AI will get rid of some jobs, but I don't see it destroying any industries. I think more than that it will just be another tool in the drawer.


No, on those types of systems an electrical/controls engineer does the PLC programming. You could say there's some degree of controls engineering in what I do, but it's pretty limited in scope and I wouldn't really call myself a controls engineer. I write the higher level software that the end user interfaces with which talks to the PLC, along with other system hardware and possibly other modules in an interconnected system. So, the PLC will do the low level IO interfacing, and my software will execute a higher level process sequence that tells the PLC (or other system hardware like robot arms) to do things in a specific order, to load or unload a wafer into a process chamber for example.

On systems like these, the end user will usually want to run some custom process once the wafer or other material is in the chamber, and my software provides the interface to do that as well. It's kind of like a very simplified custom programming language, where some of the functions are various machine capabilities (flow a gas, turn pumps on or off, change temperatures etc) along with basic flow control you would use in any programming language. The GUI of my application has an editor that allows you to create these custom processes, then my software will execute them (along with all data logging and database storage that goes with tracking wafers/lots). I love it because I get to touch a lot of different parts of software engineering.

 

[Rob Battisti]

Gotcha, I kind of misread your post - I agree AI will get rid of some jobs, but I don't see it destroying any industries. I think more than that it will just be another tool in the drawer.


No, on those types of systems an electrical/controls engineer does the PLC programming. You could say there's some degree of controls engineering in what I do, but it's pretty limited in scope and I wouldn't really call myself a controls engineer. I write the higher level software that the end user interfaces with which talks to the PLC, along with other system hardware and possibly other modules in an interconnected system. So, the PLC will do the low level IO interfacing, and my software will execute a higher level process sequence that tells the PLC (or other system hardware like robot arms) to do things in a specific order, to load or unload a wafer into a process chamber for example.

On systems like these, the end user will usually want to run some custom process once the wafer or other material is in the chamber, and my software provides the interface to do that as well. It's kind of like a very simplified custom programming language, where some of the functions are various machine capabilities (flow a gas, turn pumps on or off, change temperatures etc) along with basic flow control you would use in any programming language. The GUI of my application has an editor that allows you to create these custom processes, then my software will execute them (along with all data logging and database storage that goes with tracking wafers/lots). I love it because I get to touch a lot of different parts of software engineering.

Nice — have been working in the data centers space for the last few years. Interesting field.

 

[Deorum]

You could say that about any culture.

White people got biker trash and redneck gangs like the Dixie Mafia.

Black people and Mexican people got the hood gangbanging in huge cities.

Italians, well, that speaks for itself considering they are the most famous gangs of all.

IRA for the Irish.

Asians definitely have organized crime.

Your complaint is honestly stupid as fuck lmao. "Gangbanging" comes from shit infrastructure and poverty.

The worst gang of all is probably the white cops lol. I take that back, actually. The worst gang in the country is probably fucking wall Street and white collar criminals with money.

Do what, now? I'm not complaining, I was just talking mestizos with Rob after they were brought up -- they're people that I grew up with, worked amongst, live around and hell, even with for a time down here in AZ. It's not that serious, no little eses ever gonna bother me.

 

[Deorum]

 

[Mr Holmes]

What about teh robots?

 

[Rob Battisti]

What about teh robots?

This is what I’m talking about. Jack thinks I’m over playing the automation card, but progress the current state of AI and Bots 10 years and you will find a completely different economy and millions of jobs gone.

 

[Sinister]

More abortion bans!! MORE!!!

 

[Deorum]

What about teh robots?

This is what I’m talking about. Jack thinks I’m over playing the automation card, but progress the current state of AI and Bots 10 years and you will find a completely different economy and millions of jobs gone.

I believe there is clearly going to be a major inflection point and possible reckoning in the future, I just don't see it happening for another generation. Plus, I want to @Cole train leave Finland and the depression, drugs, and hookers behind - okay, at least the depression - to pursue the American Dream.

 

[Andy Capp]

Yikes. Who Needs A Job?

They're Here.

US Manufacturing Could Need as Many as 3.8 Million New Employees by 2033, According to Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute

Study finds that 1.9 million jobs could be left unfilled, underscoring the need for employee-focused strategies to keep up with growth.

www2.deloitte.com

I heard this interview yesterday on CBC Radio and immediately thought of this thread,

https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-57-the-sunday-magazine/clip/16068642-inflation-sanctions-reshaping-global-economy-says-economist-jeff

He covers a lot in the 23 minutes but the relevance to this thread was where he was discussing how re-shoring jobs is having several major effects on the economy.

Unions and labor in general are gaining leverage and wages will continue to rise. Wage growth in the US is currently at 6% while the inflation rate is half that. Things will get more expensive but he expects employment and wage growth in manufacturing and labor jobs which in turn should be a kind of rebirth of the middle class.

Aside, he asserted that trying to keep inflation at 2% is no longer a realistic goal. He said global supply chains and shifting labor to low-wage areas were what allowed such a long period of low inflation. Dismantling those supply chains and moving jobs back to high wage labor markets will drive inflation. As he said, higher wages increase the price of everything.

It was a very interesting segment, particularly since he agreed with me in a number of areas in relation to the Canadian economy, how the Bank of Canada fucked up the response to the pandemic, and the consequences of that, when compared with the success the US has had in its recovery.

 

[RoastBeast]

I can sign up for 5 years if i get green card by end of contract

Let me know when you get here. I need some rebar work done out back.