UFC Apex: Tuivasa vs. Tybura, March 16, Saturday, 6 pm eastern

[mkess101]

likely she can scramble. Amorim has decent hands, the odds at coin flip dont look tempting enough, i think they both match well. maybe im in the wrong but should you ever play a coin flip at 100+ or 110+ ?

I feel for these type of fights i prefer the dog to have at least 175+ ^ price to take the risk.

Totally agree. Sure a tiny play for action on a +110 line that you think is a coin flip works. You get a small amount of perceived value. But I agree, the fight is too tough to call and the books have it right.

 

[magpie878]

I thought this as well but was pretty shocked when I looked it up and saw that Barberena has only been subbed 3 times in 29 fights.

For a little context (thanks Wiki for details):

2 of his last 3 losses have been by sub, the other was over a decade ago.

Those two sub losses were to guys who knew how to sub well, 11 and 13 sub wins for those two guys.

Barberena is now facing a guy with 27 of 35 wins by sub. I'd certainly be worried if I was betting him, which I am not. Sub prop is probably still a minus number, haven't looked if props are out.

 

[Psychojoe86]

I like the talk on Tybura. His chin is solid, and so is his cardio. Tuivasa has to ko him clean, and Tybura will mix it up.

 

[Guld]

I like Moises. I don't like those odds, but I think he'll take it.

I'm leaning Tuivasa in the main event, but I'm not overly confident in that one.

 

[Thesnake101]

Nzechukwu at nearly -600 is crazy. OSP is more than done at this point, his fight with Lins proved it, but I did not like how Kennedy looked in his last two. His shtick of overcoming slow starts works more often than not, but getting rocked by Clark and subsequently iced by Jacoby are the reddest flags one could get.

He should still get by OSP here but throw something on Ovince's line in case Kennedy runs into something.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Chad/Grigoriou

Chad has the season experience here to upset, but Grigor packs a decent punch and is younger in age, training at Longos. Chad burned me once, too inconsistent and getting up there in age. Pass

Moises/Mitch
Moises should show him the pecking order, but too juiced for me, Mitch has a decent finish rate and some decent hands. Not worth the danger for Moises at that price. Pass

Amorim/Cory
Pass on the bases of wmma fight that will go to decision and maybe a split. I generally suck at wmma so don't take my advice.
Pass

Culibao/Silva
Culibao has too much experience with higher caliber fighters, landed clean shots with Murphy, showed excellent clinch exchange. i think Josh is better everywhere, Danny was too hittable in his last fight against a lesser fighter. Played

Nunes/Chandler
Favor Nunes, but hated the poor taste in my mouth in her last fight with the French chick. Got hit too much, and she is always very undersized. Chandler is nothing super threatening, but she has enough skills to maybe upset . I'm leaning Nunes, but her brawling style I'm not a fan of, she chases the knockouts too much. Pass

Davis/Levy
Davis wins this , but hate the juiced price, a ko prop perhaps is better. But i dont plan to prop bet this card so i just pass. Davis is just a better, less hittable striker, and both guys are coming off a layoff time, so i see no advantages for levy other than he kicks better. Pass based on price

Gerald/Bryan
Bad matchup for Bryan, Gerald can submit and has the takedown skills too. I generally pass on a record w/L ratio rule I have, i know it sounds overly cautious, but he's gotten chinned a bit. Pass


Pannie/Macy
Don't like the size difference here, Macy likely stalls her or grounds. I can see Pannie upset via sigStrikes, but it's a bad style matchup for her. Pass

Do more tomorrow, going to bed.

I like Nunes and Gerald as 2nd tier picks, a small sprinkle play. Josh is a stronger lean and a good parlay piece.
Amorim is playable if her ML moves higher, but it's a low confidence punt bet.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Shit card for betting imo. Played Tybura but will probably just save my money otherwise.



I don't see what Mitch Ramirez has for someone like Thiago Moises but I'm interested in hearing the argument.

After taping more Mitch Im gonna pass. Think he has a puncher's chance tho and KO not a bad look.

Dogs Im on

Tybura
Anheliger
Danny

Tempted by CRod. Sub 2/3 prices insane +1400 sub outright +700. Dulgarian hasnt been extended and if he carido dumps CRod is live for a finish IMO. We saw him handle a tough round 1 against Rosas but Rosas has good BJJ. He also had some decent sub attempts against JSP who was clearly bigger.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Nzechukwu at nearly -600 is crazy. OSP is more than done at this point, his fight with Lins proved it, but I did not like how Kennedy looked in his last two. His shtick of overcoming slow starts works more often than not, but getting rocked by Clark and subsequently iced by Jacoby are the reddest flags one could get.

He should still get by OSP here but throw something on Ovince's line in case Kennedy runs into something.

Kennedy OSP FGTD +400 is tempting IMO. How many of these wide ass FGTD lines for LHWs and HWs been covered or close to covering in recent years? Even Rozenstruik Gaziev was well on his way if Gaziev didnt just quit.

Both are southpaws and dumb fighters so it could be a staring contest I dont think Kennedy has fought a southpaw before. Only other southpaw Kennedy fought was Roberson and it was 2.5 rounds.... Maybe over is a good bet

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Kennedy OSP FGTD +400 is tempting IMO. How many of these wide ass FGTD lines for LHWs and HWs been covered or close to covering in recent years? Even Rozenstruik Gaziev was well on his way if Gaziev didnt just quit.

Both are southpaws and dumb fighters so it could be a staring contest I dont think Kennedy has fought a southpaw before. Only other southpaw Kennedy fought was Roberson and it was 2.5 rounds....

Kennedy's last 5 wins are all by finish and I think he's the likely winner, so I'm probably steering clear of that one.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Kennedy's last 5 wins are all by finish and I think he's the likely winner, so I'm probably steering clear of that one.

Yeah but the 6th was a decision and 2/5 finishes happened in the 3rd round and almost all of them were pressure fighters with only Roberson was a southpaw.

OSP is probably gonna be on the outside, tentative with the size and again both are southpaws.... Which has produced some staring contests and Kennedy wrestled Roberson most the fight. Could he finish OSP on the ground? Probably but for +400 Ill take a stab. Over 1.5 at +130 too

 

[Thesnake101]

Kennedy OSP FGTD +400 is tempting IMO. How many of these wide ass FGTD lines for LHWs and HWs been covered or close to covering in recent years? Even Rozenstruik Gaziev was well on his way if Gaziev didnt just quit.

Both are southpaws and dumb fighters so it could be a staring contest I dont think Kennedy has fought a southpaw before. Only other southpaw Kennedy fought was Roberson and it was 2.5 rounds.... Maybe over is a good bet

FGTD is a bit risky since like @Hellowhosthat said, Nzechukwu is a finisher however the over could have some value. Kennedy is a slow starter and be a basket case mentally, so we could end up with a slow match.

I'd say it's worth a hit considering you've got a slow starter coming off a KO loss. Only thing to worry about is where OSP is at mentally and physically, since he did make Lins look like a beast. I found o1.5 at +125 and feel happy with that tho.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Culibao/Silva
Culibao has too much experience with higher caliber fighters, landed clean shots with Murphy, showed excellent clinch exchange. i think Josh is better everywhere, Danny was too hittable in his last fight against a lesser fighter. Played


Josh is a stronger lean and a good parlay piece.

Culibao landed 23 significant strikes in his last fight and is taking on an opponent who landed over 200 significant strikes in their last fight. He doesn't have the volume to win a decision, so you are effectively paying juice on a 145er who is reliant on a finish to win, and taking on an opponent with no previously demonstrated durability issues; that is unwise imho.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Culibao landed 23 significant strikes in his last fight and is taking on an opponent who landed over 200 significant strikes in their last fight. He doesn't have the volume to win a decision, so you are effectively paying juice on a 145er who is reliant on a finish to win, and taking on an opponent with no previously demonstrated durability issues; that is unwise imho.

Murphy landed 24 strikes on the ground

on the feet it was 23-35 both guys threw low volume, that happens more in higher level fighters.

Scoring two kd on Choi, 1 kd on Jourdain, a sub on Melsik is positive stats.

Danny Silva took 200 ss by regional level fighter, that is poor defense, his movement is very basic. Unlike Josh he moves in a straight line and just absorbs shots.

he was out grappled in 2022 in the regional scene.

This is going to be a mismatch, Josh is further ahead in competition level and has beaten more credible fighters. Given his power to kd Choi who is a solid striker, makes believe he can finish .

Danny isn’t durable, he manages to fight guys who have 0-3 kos in their record. he’s extremely hittable and for that reason he can be koed here. he’s been subbed before in amateur. Josh showed sub skills against Melsik and i know Danny losses to grapplers like Canaan so he can be tapped.

Josh doesn’t need a finish, his power and grappling will get him a decision too. He should be -300 favorite here.

 

[mkess101]

Murphy landed 24 strikes on the ground

on the feet it was 23-35 both guys threw low volume, that happens more in higher level fighters.

Scoring two kd on Choi, 1 kd on Jourdain, a sub on Melsik is positive stats.

Danny Silva took 200 ss by regional level fighter, that is poor defense, his movement is very basic. Unlike Josh he moves in a straight line and just absorbs shots.

he was out grappled in 2022 in the regional scene.

This is going to be a mismatch, Josh is further ahead in competition level and has beaten more credible fighters. Given his power to kd Choi who is a solid striker, makes believe he can finish .

Danny isn’t durable, he manages to fight guys who have 0-3 kos in their record. he’s extremely hittable and for that reason he can be koed here. he’s been subbed before in amateur. Josh showed sub skills against Melsik and i know Danny losses to grapplers like Canaan so he can be tapped.

Josh doesn’t need a finish, his power and grappling will get him a decision too. He should be -300 favorite here.

I'd disagree that Danny isn't durable. I get that the DWCS fight was against lower level comp than Josh, but nobody could watch the brutality of that fight and think he's not durable. He ate BOMBS all the way through that fight. It doesn't speak much to his defense or him even caring about it (which yeah can and likely will catch up with him as he moves up in level of comp) but for now his durability looks terminator level imo.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Culibao landed 23 significant strikes in his last fight and is taking on an opponent who landed over 200 significant strikes in their last fight. He doesn't have the volume to win a decision, so you are effectively paying juice on a 145er who is reliant on a finish to win, and taking on an opponent with no previously demonstrated durability issues; that is unwise imho.

Opponents dictate that to an extent though. You're not going to land as many strikes in a fight where the opponent is being cagey and has power so you can't really open up much. Against an attritional striker who's likely going to come straight at you? Different ball game.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Josh doesn’t need a finish, his power and grappling will get him a decision too. He should be -300 favorite here.

Culibao over a six fight sample size has landed 2.68 significant strikes per minute on average. That is nowhere near enough volume to win a decision over a fighter like Silva who lands 60-80 significant strikes a round. Also, Silva has no demonstrated durability issues, thats just reality.

Good luck with your bet but I certainly wouldn't recommend anyone parlay Culibao.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'd disagree that Danny isn't durable. I get that the DWCS fight was against lower level comp than Josh, but nobody could watch the brutality of that fight and think he's not durable. He ate BOMBS all the way through that fight. It doesn't speak much to his defense or him even caring about it (which yeah can and likely will catch up with him as he moves up in level of comp) but for now his durability looks terminator level imo.

Pacheco struggled to put this guy away

Nathan

The industry pioneer in UFC, Bellator and all things MMA (aka Ultimate Fighting). MMA news, interviews, pictures, videos and more since 1997.

www.sherdog.com

pacheco from amateur to pro has 5 kos in 17 fights. his punches have no snap or speed to them. Danny still looked hurt throughout the fight and got backed up.


Calibao has decent snap, i saw him hit murphy with real bombs that made force grappling, Josh does have adequate power to drop Danny, Im not impressed with his chin, remember its the shots you dont see that gets you.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Opponents dictate that to an extent though. You're not going to land as many strikes in a fight where the opponent is being cagey and has power so you can't really open up much. Against an attritional striker who's likely going to come straight at you? Different ball game.

The volume though is not in the same stratosphere, its 2.68<13.6 significant strikes a minute, no fighter can win a fight by decision if they are being outlanded by 4-5x and I definitely wouldn't pay chalk to find out. In Silva's LFA fights he was throwing in similar numbers the Pacheco fight isn't a one-off.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Culibao over a six fight sample size has landed 2.68 significant strikes per minute on average. That is nowhere near enough volume to win a decision over a fighter like Silva who lands 60-80 significant strikes a round. Also, Silva has no demonstrated durability issues, thats just reality.

Good luck with your bet but I certainly wouldn't recommend anyone parlay Culibao.

You don’t seem to get that not all stats carry the same weight.

if boxer A scored 100 jabs on pernell whitaker.

And boxer B scored 1000 jabs on glass joe

Who do you likely believe has a better jab?

NOT ALL STATS CARRY THE SAME VALUE

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

You don’t seem to get that not all stats carry the same weight.

if boxer A scored 100 jabs on pernell whitaker.

And boxer B scored 1000 jabs on glass joe

Who do you likely believe has a better jab?

NOT ALL STATS CARRY THE SAME VALUE

It is an MMA fight not a boxing match or contest based on who has the better jab.

Fighters do not win by decision throwing 5x less volume than their opponent thats just reality.

Pacheco struggled to put this guy away

Nathan

The industry pioneer in UFC, Bellator and all things MMA (aka Ultimate Fighting). MMA news, interviews, pictures, videos and more since 1997.

www.sherdog.com

pacheco from amateur to pro has 5 kos in 17 fights. his punches have no snap or speed to them. Danny still looked hurt throughout the fight and got backed up.


Calibao has decent snap, i saw him hit murphy with real bombs that made force grappling, Josh does have adequate power to drop Danny, Im not impressed with his chin, remember its the shots you dont see that gets you.

Silva appears to have greater punching power than Culibao, throws over 5x more volume than Culibao, and is significantly more durable than Culibao. You are talking up a guy who went down to a phantom liver kick in his last fight and made no serious attempt to get back into the fight that he was clearly down 2 rounds in.

If you think that is worthy of -300 then again, I wish you the best of luck on your bet, but I won't pretend parlaying Culibao is not extremely ill-advised which is what you recommended.