Article: The Machida Era Begins...My Most Recent Article

[Boganzo]

I love Machida but like many things on sherdog, the fans come out and treat Lyoto like he literally is some mystical dragon and already people are talking about an "era" or him. For all we know his era may be as long as Matt Serra's or Dave Menne's.

Anyway, here are some of my thoughts on Lyoto from an earlier thread I created.

There's a million threads on who will or even possibly can defeat Machida and here is my breakdown.

Before I get into any of Machida's weaknesses, I want to break down his strengths and why he can negate a lot of fighters. By understanding what makes Machida strong, we can see where he may have some weaknesses. I think a lot of us fans are mystified by his style and I just wanted to say specifically why a lot of opponents have a hard time engaging him. So here goes.

1. Machida backs up and circles.

Rule one of boxing or any combative art really, is that if you're going to back up, don't just back straight up but also circle around your opponent so he can't land any of his power shots flush and he can't charge you ala Mike Tyson or Joe Frazier and blast your head off. Anyone who watches Machida fight will instantly notice how he is constantly backing up and circling, kind of like Ali just not in Ali's stance.

Aside from making it hard for anyone to land any good shots, the circling also helps defend against shots because a shot is exactly that, it's a direct line wrestling attack and if an opponent moves laterally it is hard for the wrestler to shift his momentum and go after him with good strength. This is why I think Machida will also defeat many free-style wrestlers looking to shoot for the double or single from the outside. I haven't seen Machida's sprawl a bunch of times, but with Machida's style even a prime Ortiz would have a lot of trouble getting a takedown.

2. Machida's "unorthodoxy" broken down. (His Southpaw Stance and modified strikes)

A lot of people like to use the word "unorthodox" to describe Machida because his style looks different and people aren't used to it. But his style is specifically unorthodox in a few important ways that I'll just go over real quick. First of all, Machida stands in southpaw. There's a bunch of weird nuances to how fighting a southpaw is different, but in the most basic sense, let me just say that if two guys are fighting and one is in southpaw and the other isn't, the guy in southpaw has a slight reach advantage with his lead punch and lead kick. Plus he has more time to react defensively against lead hooks, jabs, etc. This element is crucial to Machida's style. The one thing about being a southpaw though is that sometimes it's hard to land clean strikes against one or as one because the exchanges between the two fighters are kind of awkward so sometimes both fighters are reluctant to engage.

Now as far as Machida's modified strikes go, Machida throws a couple of very basic strikes to the utmost efficiency. The first is his jab which is a staple of any defensive, stick-and-move fighter. Concerning Machida's punches, i just want everyone to note that Machida throws mostly "straights" even with his lead hand. By this I mean that he throws hard "power" shots even in his jab, it's just that the punches are going straight. Here's some examples.





These punches are both efficient in their straightness and powerful.

Machida also likes to throw lead leg kicks, especially if you just stand there and don't engage him. However there is a crucial difference in his leg kicks and most others. Most thai boxers like to kick with their body upright and shift their hips so as to maximize that leg kick power. Like this



There's a downside though. Even though that kick probably would have broken a steel bar, if your opponent can somehow shin check it or just eat it he can counter with a huge hook and knock your opponent out flat ala Wandy and Jardine.

Now back to Machida's kicks- I don't have a Gif of it, but Machida leans back when he throws his kicks. This makes him harder to hit with those counters. Not only is he the master of countering, but he's also hard to counter.

Lastly, if an opponent decides to just walk after him and just try to keep his arms up to avoid punishment, Machida will just clinch him ala David Heath and Tito Ortiz and land brutal knees. You can't just walk straight in with your guard up and expect to survive long enough to land your own shots against Lyoto.

OK. Now that I've said all of that. This is one of the guys I think could beat Machida and here is how.




First off let me just say, that while Machida's striking may baffle the average onlooker, I think he would still get destroyed by any elite pure kickboxer of about his same size. I think that fighting Overeem for instance or The Snake, or anyone with some good reach, speed, and instincts, I think Machida would hold his own for awhile but eventually accumulate damage, especially if it were in a ring and he could not circle as easily. Machida destroyed Thaigo Silva but Silva is not on Overeem's level.

A lot of people have seen videos of Lyoto launching kick combos on a heavy bag. The combos look gorgeous but the bag doesn't move a bunch when machida kicks it, meaning those fancy kicks you see, don't always pack a lot of power. I think Machida looks to use them to get people to come in or some cases back off, so he can counter. So if Machida tried that low kick stuff on Overeem I see Overeem hitting him with an overhand hook and putting him down. Plus Overeem has a better and harder one two, he outreaches lyoto, is about just as fast, and probably hits harder. I don't think he's dumb enough to walk into a Lyoto Dragon Knee like Ortiz did either. I see Overeem beating him in a 3rd round knockout.


Here is another guy, who in his prime (which may still be now), I think could beat Machida.




Now it's true that Lyoto is "elusive" but Randy is the master at chasing guys who are backing up, scoring the clinch where he is the best BAR NONE, and pressing them against the cage. I think if Lyoto were to come out and throw pretty munch anything, randy would use head movement, choose his spot and rush in for the clinch.

It's true that it's hard to shoot on Lyoto, but Randy uses a greco roman wrestling clinch to set up his takedowns. I think Randy could score his clinch a lot easier than a wrestler could land a shot. From there he would press Lyoto against the cage and demoralize him.

Personally, I think if Lyoto were fighting Randy, I think Randy would take the heart out of him quickly because I think it is possible to to demoralize Lyoto.

How can that be? Lyoto has never been hit really hard or looked bad so why should I question his heart? This is because Lyoto kind of hinted at the fact that he let the pressure of the big Tito Ortiz get to him and so he could not perform as well as he wanted to. This tells me that Lyoto is susceptible to being mentally not as focused as he should be in a fight.

Randy is ALWAYS focused. If Randy scores one clinch, one takedown, there is no getting out of it. His control is too good and I see him using dirty boxing (something where Lyoto would finally be out of his element) and ripping up Lyoto's face. From there I see Lyoto either becoming too aggressive in desperation and getting taken down, or becoming too defensive, cornering himself against the cage, and allowing Randy an easy clinch to takedown.

Ok, there's my analysis in a long ass nut shell. I'll elaborate on any one part more if someone asks me later, but there you have it.

Argue away.

[Rambamatic]

It's an absolutely brilliant analysis, and well written. Several of the points you make, have been made in the past by myself and a few other posters, just taken from different angles. For example, we've been talking at length in various other threads about the Muay Thai kicking style vs the karate kicking style. Karate kicking is going to be more, faster, kicks with less power but less risk, and more changes of position and follow up coming off of the combinations. MT kicking we see fewer, slower kicks but with much more power, a bit more risk, and less follow up. Especially as he kicks right from the stance, the time to contact and visual cue follow up to track the kick is much much less. Sure, they are less powerful, but not as much commitment, less set up, and the leaned back body position all have advantages. Watching him kick Rashad in the head over and over again straight from his stance with no set up was really a thing of beauty.

Those straight punches that don't come back to a high position up near the jaw, but are chambered near the chest, are also a karate staple. Watch the flurry of punches that he throws as he moves forward towards Rashad right before the end of the fight. He's literally moving forward throwing slightly modified reverse punches....it's awesome to watch.

Your take is very clear and concise. I wish that I had time to write a more in-depth response, but things are going to be crazy around here until after UFC100, when I will get some much needed downtime.

I agree with you that Overeem and Randy are two guys who stylistically, on paper, make a lot of sense in terms of creating a strategic matchup that would pit Lyoto's weaknesses against the strengths of specific fighters.

However, I think that the argument for both Overeem and Randy have serious flaws. The first is in the general assumption that either of those fighters would be able to make Machida fight their specific fight.

Machida is a complete mixed martial artist, whose game at all of the three ranges of the fight (freemotion, clinch, and grappling) is elite level....unlike both Alestair and Randy.

Alestair Overeem, who has elite level striking, and whose clinch and grappling work is certainly competent and serviceable for MMA, is not by any means near the level of Mahcida on the mat, in the clinch, or dealing with takedowns. IF IT WERE K-1 RULES, I THINK THAT OVEREEM COULD HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE TO BEAT, MAYBE EVEN KO MACHIDA. However, under MMA rules, I think that Machida, understanding that he's the better MMA artist, would chose to NOT STRIKE with Overeem, and take two pages out of Shogun Rua's book to take Overeem down to the mat and either submit him, pound him out, or grind out a top control UD. Machida, as a strategist, understands that he has many more ways to win that fight than Overeem does, and take the fight into the area where he's stronger. Look at the Soko fight...Soko clipped Machida a couple of times, and Mahcida didn't like it at all....so he immediately went to where he knew he could end the fight with minimal risk. All in all, in an MMA fight, I see Machida being the clear favorite.

Randy is not really a candidate, IMO. He's too old. If we were talking about Randy during his first 205 run when he was beating Chuck, Tito, and Vitor....or maybe (although to a lesser extent) his former run at HW when he beat Tim and Gonzaga, then okay, I think that's possible. However, Randy now is just too old against a guy (Machida) who is not only in his prime, but at the peak of his powers. There are also two other issues with Randy:

1st there's the counter striking issue: Although he has elite level clinch work, he had a LOT of trouble dealing with Chuck, and that same area in which Chuck was so good is also the area in which Machida is also so good. Sure, Randy doesn't want to stand on the outside and strike in the free motion phase with a guy like Lyoto...he wants to get inside and bully him to the mat from the clinch...if he doesn't get KOed on the way in (Chuck x2) or clipped for sticking around on the outside for too long (Lesnar).

2nd, Randy has never fought the level of grappler that Lyoto represents. It's not his primary weapon, but Lyoto's grappling for MMA is stronger than any other 205 pounder that Randy has ever faced....and yes, I do mean better than Vitor, better than Tito, better than Chuck, better than Mike Van Arsdale. In terms of pure submission grappling, Gonzaga is certainly a more accredited grappler than Lyoto, but when you put the whole clinch/TD and TD defense together with the wrestling and submission elements, I think that Machida is a more COMPLETE MMA GRAPPLER than Gonzaga. Aside from the guys at HW like Barnett and Rodriquez, Randy never fought a lot of elite submission grapplers at 205....and so Lyoto presents a uinique challenge to him there. Does Couture have the advantage on the ground? Sure, in very general terms. However, I think it's more nuanced than that, and I would not discount the idea that Randy gets into trouble trying to hold Lyoto down, and ends up in a bad position udnerneath him eating strikes.

The other point is that this strategy really banks on Randy being able to use the clinch to do what he does. The first problem is just the point above. The second one is that Machida's Sumo background presents even more issues with the actual clinching phase itself. Sumo and GR are very similar in rule sets and that they are both games of millimeters spent fighting the over/under hooks game. One thing about Machida that a lot of people don't realize is that he's ALWAYS got underhooks when the clinch comes around....it's like these ghostly underhooks that just appear out of nowhere. I think that his clinch game is vastly under-rated because he's juxtaposed with gusy like Anderson Silva or Randy COuture....guys for whom the clinch is an end in and of itself, and spend a lot of time there. Mahcida uses the clinch in a very different way than either of them do. For him it's not an end in itself, it's a means to transition to a different position or phase of the fight. For that reason, we don't see a LOT of Machida clinch work, but the work that we DO see, is elite, and on the level of a guy like Randy, IMO.

So, to sum up, I think that Randy probably presents more of an issue than does a guy like Overeem, but that Randy isn't a very clear cut stylistic match winner once you dig into it and start to look at it in depth.

I wish I had more time, but I'm behind the gun.

Peace

[Edgat]

this thread is full of good reads.

[Tony-The-Tiger]

Nice reads. Very informative.

[fourfif]

Originally Posted by Rambamatic

I would not discount the idea that Randy gets into trouble trying to hold Lyoto down, and ends up in a bad position udnerneath him eating strikes.

i don't see this happening. great post though.

[Boganzo]

Originally Posted by Rambamatic

It's an absolutely brilliant analysis, and well written. Several of the points you make, have been made in the past by myself and a few other posters, just taken from different angles. For example, we've been talking at length in various other threads about the Muay Thai kicking style vs the karate kicking style. Karate kicking is going to be more, faster, kicks with less power but less risk, and more changes of position and follow up coming off of the combinations. MT kicking we see fewer, slower kicks but with much more power, a bit more risk, and less follow up. Especially as he kicks right from the stance, the time to contact and visual cue follow up to track the kick is much much less. Sure, they are less powerful, but not as much commitment, less set up, and the leaned back body position all have advantages. Watching him kick Rashad in the head over and over again straight from his stance with no set up was really a thing of beauty.

Those straight punches that don't come back to a high position up near the jaw, but are chambered near the chest, are also a karate staple. Watch the flurry of punches that he throws as he moves forward towards Rashad right before the end of the fight. He's literally moving forward throwing slightly modified reverse punches....it's awesome to watch.

Your take is very clear and concise. I wish that I had time to write a more in-depth response, but things are going to be crazy around here until after UFC100, when I will get some much needed downtime.

I agree with you that Overeem and Randy are two guys who stylistically, on paper, make a lot of sense in terms of creating a strategic matchup that would pit Lyoto's weaknesses against the strengths of specific fighters.

However, I think that the argument for both Overeem and Randy have serious flaws. The first is in the general assumption that either of those fighters would be able to make Machida fight their specific fight.

Machida is a complete mixed martial artist, whose game at all of the three ranges of the fight (freemotion, clinch, and grappling) is elite level....unlike both Alestair and Randy.

Alestair Overeem, who has elite level striking, and whose clinch and grappling work is certainly competent and serviceable for MMA, is not by any means near the level of Mahcida on the mat, in the clinch, or dealing with takedowns. IF IT WERE K-1 RULES, I THINK THAT OVEREEM COULD HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE TO BEAT, MAYBE EVEN KO MACHIDA. However, under MMA rules, I think that Machida, understanding that he's the better MMA artist, would chose to NOT STRIKE with Overeem, and take two pages out of Shogun Rua's book to take Overeem down to the mat and either submit him, pound him out, or grind out a top control UD. Machida, as a strategist, understands that he has many more ways to win that fight than Overeem does, and take the fight into the area where he's stronger. Look at the Soko fight...Soko clipped Machida a couple of times, and Mahcida didn't like it at all....so he immediately went to where he knew he could end the fight with minimal risk. All in all, in an MMA fight, I see Machida being the clear favorite.

Randy is not really a candidate, IMO. He's too old. If we were talking about Randy during his first 205 run when he was beating Chuck, Tito, and Vitor....or maybe (although to a lesser extent) his former run at HW when he beat Tim and Gonzaga, then okay, I think that's possible. However, Randy now is just too old against a guy (Machida) who is not only in his prime, but at the peak of his powers. There are also two other issues with Randy:

1st there's the counter striking issue: Although he has elite level clinch work, he had a LOT of trouble dealing with Chuck, and that same area in which Chuck was so good is also the area in which Machida is also so good. Sure, Randy doesn't want to stand on the outside and strike in the free motion phase with a guy like Lyoto...he wants to get inside and bully him to the mat from the clinch...if he doesn't get KOed on the way in (Chuck x2) or clipped for sticking around on the outside for too long (Lesnar).

2nd, Randy has never fought the level of grappler that Lyoto represents. It's not his primary weapon, but Lyoto's grappling for MMA is stronger than any other 205 pounder that Randy has ever faced....and yes, I do mean better than Vitor, better than Tito, better than Chuck, better than Mike Van Arsdale. In terms of pure submission grappling, Gonzaga is certainly a more accredited grappler than Lyoto, but when you put the whole clinch/TD and TD defense together with the wrestling and submission elements, I think that Machida is a more COMPLETE MMA GRAPPLER than Gonzaga. Aside from the guys at HW like Barnett and Rodriquez, Randy never fought a lot of elite submission grapplers at 205....and so Lyoto presents a uinique challenge to him there. Does Couture have the advantage on the ground? Sure, in very general terms. However, I think it's more nuanced than that, and I would not discount the idea that Randy gets into trouble trying to hold Lyoto down, and ends up in a bad position udnerneath him eating strikes.

The other point is that this strategy really banks on Randy being able to use the clinch to do what he does. The first problem is just the point above. The second one is that Machida's Sumo background presents even more issues with the actual clinching phase itself. Sumo and GR are very similar in rule sets and that they are both games of millimeters spent fighting the over/under hooks game. One thing about Machida that a lot of people don't realize is that he's ALWAYS got underhooks when the clinch comes around....it's like these ghostly underhooks that just appear out of nowhere. I think that his clinch game is vastly under-rated because he's juxtaposed with gusy like Anderson Silva or Randy COuture....guys for whom the clinch is an end in and of itself, and spend a lot of time there. Mahcida uses the clinch in a very different way than either of them do. For him it's not an end in itself, it's a means to transition to a different position or phase of the fight. For that reason, we don't see a LOT of Machida clinch work, but the work that we DO see, is elite, and on the level of a guy like Randy, IMO.

So, to sum up, I think that Randy probably presents more of an issue than does a guy like Overeem, but that Randy isn't a very clear cut stylistic match winner once you dig into it and start to look at it in depth.

I wish I had more time, but I'm behind the gun.

Peace

I think you are completely correct in your rebuttal. When I wrote that analysis I was thinking of guys who possibly COULD beat Machida but I would still bet on Machida in either of those matchups. I think that if Overeem gasses from the tremendous cut, Machida will definately knock him out and Overeem has a habit of gassing even in fights he is winning. I think Machida could definately survive long enough to test Overeems cardio and conditioning.

I think a prime Randy could beat Machida, but I think in terms of fighting intelligence and knowing what to do when a situation arises, Randy may be at his prime now. The only problem is, I still see Machida very easily being able to KO Randy as he comes wading in, even with head movement, if Lyoto can time him.

I think if Randy were to get the clinch though, he would outgrapple Lyoto. Lyoto surprised Tito and many other fighters, and he could well surprise Couture. But Couture is too versatile, and many of the fighters Lyoto has fought rely on trying to just force a move to work using pure strength- like Tito. Randy doesn't rely on muscle for takedowns. He gets an advantageous position or handling and then advances as opportunities arise in a give and take scenario. I just see Randy being too experienced for Lyoto there, and he has proven that by facing various elite level grapplers that he was able to control early on- Ricco, Barnett, Van Arsdale, Gonzaga, Chuck x1, Tito, Belfort. He was able to control all of these men. I see him having an easier time with Lyoto than any of them.

[West-206]

Good intelligent talk guys, interesting discussion here (am I on sherdog??). When you boil it down Machida is an intriguing fighter, but some people take it a little too deep, comparing his fights to an enlightening religious or philosophical journey like some sort of Zhang Yimou movie montage. Like Joe Rogan said after Machida knocked out Rashad, people love the whole ancient karate bruce-lee-esque mystique Machida gives off. He's really popular because he does bring back that traditional martial arts feel that we don't get a lot today, and on top of that he's so professional, gracious, and so damn good at everything. He's really coming into his prime now, and getting better every fight (scary), and I can't wait to see him fight again. He's been one of my fav's for a long time. Shogun/Machida is going to be amazing is Shogun is in good shape.

[darkgojira]

First, some very good discussion goin on in this thread.

To Boganzo:

On the analysis on machida's unorthodoxy, though you mention his south paw stance, i think you missed an important part of his striking stance in his ability to switch stances, meaning competency in both sides. He doesn't switch mainly to confuse an opponent and switch back, he fires off kicks and punches from both sides. He is also capable of switching stances in the middle of a combination so that there is a fluid motion and is able to continue a combination without having the restriction of having to reset to a certain side. Something that is not taught in MT, Boxing and Kickboxing, but in Karate and TKD.

On Overeem's Threat:

Overeem is a big powerful guy with a good reach and some decent speed to give many people problems. The problem is Machida is a lot smarter than him. Of course Machida's double kicks wouldn't work against a guy like overeem who could bullrush him in mid kick, but Machida is not going to fire off those kicks at someone who is as competent as Overeem. Lyoto uses these flashier kicks when he is comfortable that his opponent is not at his striking skill level. He used them against Tito, and although Tito's kickboxing is underrated, its not that good, and a few others, but when he faced more skilled strikers, Thialgo, Rashad, Soko(not better but still dangerous), he didn't use them, and stuck to keeping the distance and countering.

On Couture:

Couture is the one guy I do believe could give lyoto trouble because of the clinch game against the cage. This is only place we've seen lyoto take any real damage, Thialgo before he got tossed and KTFO, and 3rd round of the Tito fight. Couture could definitely win the fight if he could get there and keep it there. Key words: GET IT THERE. Though Couture does have good head movement, just as Rambamatic pointed out, he got KO'd by Chuck 2x, and i believe Lyoto is better at keeping the distance and timing than chuck is, and never allowing randy to get in to work his game.

just my thoughts

[Boganzo]

Originally Posted by darkgojira

First, some very good discussion goin on in this thread.

To Boganzo:

On the analysis on machida's unorthodoxy, though you mention his south paw stance, i think you missed an important part of his striking stance in his ability to switch stances, meaning competency in both sides. He doesn't switch mainly to confuse an opponent and switch back, he fires off kicks and punches from both sides. He is also capable of switching stances in the middle of a combination so that there is a fluid motion and is able to continue a combination without having the restriction of having to reset to a certain side. Something that is not taught in MT, Boxing and Kickboxing, but in Karate and TKD.

On Overeem's Threat:

Overeem is a big powerful guy with a good reach and some decent speed to give many people problems. The problem is Machida is a lot smarter than him. Of course Machida's double kicks wouldn't work against a guy like overeem who could bullrush him in mid kick, but Machida is not going to fire off those kicks at someone who is as competent as Overeem. Lyoto uses these flashier kicks when he is comfortable that his opponent is not at his striking skill level. He used them against Tito, and although Tito's kickboxing is underrated, its not that good, and a few others, but when he faced more skilled strikers, Thialgo, Rashad, Soko(not better but still dangerous), he didn't use them, and stuck to keeping the distance and countering.

On Couture:

Couture is the one guy I do believe could give lyoto trouble because of the clinch game against the cage. This is only place we've seen lyoto take any real damage, Thialgo before he got tossed and KTFO, and 3rd round of the Tito fight. Couture could definitely win the fight if he could get there and keep it there. Key words: GET IT THERE. Though Couture does have good head movement, just as Rambamatic pointed out, he got KO'd by Chuck 2x, and i believe Lyoto is better at keeping the distance and timing than chuck is, and never allowing randy to get in to work his game.

just my thoughts

Alright. I'll come out with it.

I am Alistair Overeem and I am a LOT smarter than Lyoto Machida. I beat him in online chess almost daily.

Give me your address so I can beat you up.

(Seriously, who are you to say Lyoto is much smarter than Alistair. I could see if you said- Lyoto is smarter than Melvin Guilliard or Mikey Burnett or something but like, we don't know anything about how intelligent Alistair is.)

[Boganzo]

I wish we could have more great dialogues like this on Sherdog. This is what I enjoy about this website.