08' Kentucky Derby

daniel crawley · 05-02-2008, 07:16 AM

Well, now that we have a sports forum lets see if this thread can work better then it did in the Mayberry. Any body have any locks, sleepers, or longshots? Here is the field with thier post positions

1.Cool Man Coal 20/1
2.Tale of Ekati 15/1
3.Anak Nakal 30/1
4.Court Vision 20/1
5.Eight Belles 15/1
6.Z Fortune 15/1
7.Big truck 50/1
8.Visionaire 20/1
9.Pyro 6/1
10.Colonel John 4/1
11.Z Humor 30/1
12.Smooth Air 20/1
13.Bob Black Jack 20/1
14.Monba 15-1
15.Adriano 30/1
16.Denis of Cork 20/1
17.Cowboy Cal 20/1
18.Recapturetheglory 20/1
19.Gayego 15/1
20.Big Brown 3/1

Any questions or comments I will try to help.

daniel crawley · 05-02-2008, 08:02 AM

Damn, Nobody bets on the derby?

quickneasycat1 · 05-02-2008, 08:15 AM

I live in Louisville, but don't plan on attending derby. Anyhow, Big Brown has a bad draw at 20. He's also a speed horse so he'll need to jump out to the lead to have a chance and starting in gate 20 he has a lot of ground to make up against the more favorable draws of say Pyro. With that said Big Brown has had some GREAT works, bullets and 5 and 6 furlongs at crazy speeds but I just can't bet a speed horse in the 20th gate at the Kentucky Derby. But looking at the rest of the field, I'm not finding anyone else who really stands out. Right now I'm thinking this is a good year to bet some high odds. I'm seeing a 15-1 or better winning this race. A horse like Z Fortune or Monba.

quickneasycat1 · 05-02-2008, 08:17 AM

Handicapping the derby is damn near impossible. I told myself I'd never bet the derby again when Giacomo won it a few years back. Today is the day to throw some money down, Oaks is where it's at. Derby is for the tourists

daniel crawley · 05-02-2008, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by quickneasycat1

I live in Louisville, but don't plan on attending derby. Anyhow, Big Brown has a bad draw at 20. He's also a speed horse so he'll need to jump out to the lead to have a chance and starting in gate 20 he has a lot of ground to make up against the more favorable draws of say Pyro. With that said Big Brown has had some GREAT works, bullets and 5 and 6 furlongs at crazy speeds but I just can't bet a speed horse in the 20th gate at the Kentucky Derby. But looking at the rest of the field, I'm not finding anyone else who really stands out. Right now I'm thinking this is a good year to bet some high odds. I'm seeing a 15-1 or better winning this race. A horse like Z Fortune or Monba.

Same thing here. If Big Brown wants to hit the board he will have to get out quick because a 20 horse field will wash you out quick. I like Monba @ 14 and 15-1. I think this is todd Pletchers year to get a winning hoerse in the derby. Also Eight Belles in post 5 is a sleeper I think. It would be cool to see a Philly win it. Her last two races were amazing.

daniel crawley · 05-02-2008, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by quickneasycat1

Handicapping the derby is damn near impossible. I told myself I'd never bet the derby again when Giacomo won it a few years back. Today is the day to throw some money down, Oaks is where it's at. Derby is for the tourists

Yeah I like the Oaks. They had Eight Belles entered, but im sure they pulled her. She drew 12 anyway. I prefer betting the Belmont or Preakness over the Derby, and the breeders cup is where its at. So many goosd races.

quickneasycat1 · 05-02-2008, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daniel crawley

Same thing here. If Big Brown wants to hit the board he will have to get out quick because a 20 horse field will wash you out quick. I like Monba @ 14 and 15-1. I think this is todd Pletchers year to get a winning hoerse in the derby. Also Eight Belles in post 5 is a sleeper I think. It would be cool to see a Philly win it. Her last two races were amazing.

I agree that it would be cool to see a Filly win the derby but that's the reason I can't bet her, it's just so rare. I love bettin the ponies, and now for me it's in season. Heading to churchill next weekend!!

daniel crawley · 05-02-2008, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by quickneasycat1

I agree that it would be cool to see a Filly win the derby but that's the reason I can't bet her, it's just so rare. I love bettin the ponies, and now for me it's in season. Heading to churchill next weekend!!

When I has in AZ I would go down to Turf Paradise(Shitty track, low purses, cold beer) about 3 times a week. Now Im in Florida, but the closest track is over an hour away. And as far as bwtting a Philly. I may put like 5 or 10 on her acrossed the board just for fun, but probally wont put her in any tri's

quickneasycat1 · 05-02-2008, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daniel crawley

When I has in AZ I would go down to Turf Paradise(Shitty track, low purses, cold beer) about 3 times a week. Now Im in Florida, but the closest track is over an hour away. And as far as bwtting a Philly. I may put like 5 or 10 on her acrossed the board just for fun, but probally wont put her in any tri's

I'm pretty lucky, I live about 15 minutes from Churchill and about 45 minutes from Keeneland. Good luck hitting a tri in the derby. That could make you a rich man. Wish I would have hit the tri with Giacomo LOL. I think I may try a 2 dollar tri box with about 5 horses...I just have to figure out which 5 horses.

daniel crawley · 05-02-2008, 10:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by quickneasycat1

I'm pretty lucky, I live about 15 minutes from Churchill and about 45 minutes from Keeneland. Good luck hitting a tri in the derby. That could make you a rich man. Wish I would have hit the tri with Giacomo LOL. I think I may try a 2 dollar tri box with about 5 horses...I just have to figure out which 5 horses.

Yeah I typically key one horse then box about 4 behind him, but I just cant find a horse to key so a complete box could be a good choice. Churchill is awesome. I always laughed because at Turf Paradise out highest handicap race of the day is always churchills lowest claiming race. I dont think I have ever seen a claiming race at Churchill under $45,00.00