[AmericanDragon]

I went through the winners of the previous TUF seasons and put Leben and the favorites of TUF3 (Bisping/Starnes/Herman) in there too. I checked the records of everyone they beat before TUF/UFC and then got a ratio for each person, then averaged all the ratios. Most people just go and add up all the wins and losses and get something like 50-50 or 100-50 but those can be unfairly influenced by people like Fulton so I just took the ratio for each person and averaged it.

fighter - opponent's average win/loss ratio - number of wins

Evans 0.66 5 wins
Herman 0.57 10 wins
Griffin 0.57 9 wins
Sanchez 0.46 11 wins
Bisping 0.44 10 wins
Leben 0.43 10 wins
Starnes 0.41 6 wins
Stevenson 0.40 23 wins

Bisping, Starnes, and Herman are in good company. Everyone says that they just beat cans but they have similar, if not better records than the previous winners. The other members of TUF3 barely have 5 fights/wins each and they're mostly against cans too so their ratios usually come out to 0.25-0.35. Sanchez, Griffin, and Stevenson were heavy favorites to win just based on their records and they won because they had more wins and more experience than anyone else there. It doesn't matter if they were beating up cans. All of the TUF fighters were beating up cans before the show, some of them even losing to cans. People like Sanchez were favored because they destroyed the cans they fought.

They fought better quality competition than the rest of the fighters, and won against them too. But of course there can be inexperienced fighters like Koscheck or Hamill who can ruin their plans.

[GNP 4 LIFE]

Good way to bet on these guys.

[NHB7]

Last time I made my predictions based on ring experience despite the records, just the experience. I got one right with Stevenson. I'm doing the same this season and saying that Herman and Bisping are going to win.

[Steve4192]

MMA math never works.

I'll show more respect for a guy with a win over an established fighter with a lousy record (like Elvis Sinosic) than I will for a victory over some nobody with a spotless record.

[AmericanDragon]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

MMA math never works.

I'll show more respect for a guy with a win over an established fighter with a lousy record (like Elvis Sinosic) than I will for a victory over some nobody with a spotless record.

The favorites that I mentioned have fought and lost to good fighters too like Nick Thompson, Joe Doerkson, etc. The other members on TUF3 haven't beaten anyone special, and they haven't even lost to anyone special either.

Either way, they fought against the best and have more quality wins than the others. What more do you want?

[Rhythmic]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

MMA math never works.

I'll show more respect for a guy with a win over an established fighter with a lousy record (like Elvis Sinosic) than I will for a victory over some nobody with a spotless record.

I agree fully with steve.

[xxlbeerZ]

Cool thanks for the info.

[Rob"the-reality]

you use the word can way too much

interesting to see rashad is the best fighter statistically.I bet if you did one for tito and compared it to griffen it'd tell an interesting story

[AmericanDragon]

Originally Posted by Rob"the-reality

you use the word can way too much

interesting to see rashad is the best fighter statistically.I bet if you did one for tito and compared it to griffen it'd tell an interesting story

The fighters in the middle had around 10 wins each while Rashad only had 5 and Stevenson had 23, that's why their stats are in on the extreme ends.

[clownie]

Pretty good analysis. I think Herman, Starnes, and Bisping willl definitely be in the final.

I think the way TUF 3 is edited is pretty much steering the show in that direction. The show producers probably wouldn' t give Herman, Starnes and Bisping so much air time and have so many trivial clips of them "whining" if they were just gonna get eliminated in the first round.

The only guy with little experience I see making it to the finals this season is probably Matt Hamill. He'll pull a Rashad with his strong wrestling skills.