[Hog-train]

If you saw and read this:

"Hostile" Iran Sparks U.S. Attack Plan, Pentagon Wary Of Tehran's Expanding Nuclear Program And Support Of Iraqi Insurgents - CBS News

In all the main stream news displays, ie. yahoo et al,

Some elements of the US claim it is because of Iran's role in Iraq but it is most probably because this just happened:

Iran Ends Oil Transactions In U.S. Dollars, OPEC's Second-Largest Producer Now Pegs Petroleum To Euros And Yen - CBS News

[Darwinist]

Ouch....

That's been in the making for quite some time, but there's not going to be an attack on Iran. That window of opportunity slammed shut a long time ago.

I´ve posted this before, but it bears repeating: bomb Iran from the air and you have a naval and land war on your hands for the simple reason that Iran WILL close the Straits of Hormuz as a retaliation, and someone will have to go in to clear it. That will mean sea, air and land based operations in rocky, mountaneus terrain and extremely constricted waters. And every day the straits are closed, the world economy takes a pounding.

[Crimsonsabbath]

A war with Iran would be a lot more devestating than the one with Iraq. Iran has basically been planning on how to fight the USA since the Islamic Revolution 40 years ago.

[BadassHo]

go to strategypage.com


they could only close the straits with mines, and they can only keep that closed for 20-30 days maximum. the french, british, germans, dutch, italians, all of europe...they have support ships in the straits also plus minesweepers. they are there to assist our warships and to help open the straits. tehran closes those straits, and all the western world is against them, and we'll get help from israel. as isreal would be fighting hezbollah in lebanon but a full scale invasion wouldnt take isreal long to accomplish there.


and irans real threats.......air, naval, and missile locations, anti aircraft and communications will be pulverized. quickly.

[The Awsat Shark]

Originally Posted by Darwinist

Ouch....

That's been in the making for quite some time, but there's not going to be an attack on Iran. That window of opportunity slammed shut a long time ago.

I´ve posted this before, but it bears repeating: bomb Iran from the air and you have a naval and land war on your hands for the simple reason that Iran WILL close the Straits of Hormuz as a retaliation, and someone will have to go in to clear it. That will mean sea, air and land based operations in rocky, mountaneus terrain and extremely constricted waters. And every day the straits are closed, the world economy takes a pounding.

so you don't believe america is capable of pounding the iranian military with overwhelming force, leaving them incapable/unmotivated to try and close off any straits for fear of another aerial pounding?

[Ezra Pound]

Sounds like punishment for dumping the dollar with petrol transactions.

[busdriver01]

Wouldn't closing off the straits also cut off Iran from restocing their food and gasoline? Iran has lots of oil, but very little food and next to no refineries.

[Nietzsche13]

"A worthless piece of paper."

ouch


This isn't a military war, its an economic war over a prized commodity.

[Darwinist]

Originally Posted by BadassHo

go to strategypage.com

That page hurts my eyes, it's so badly designed. Got a link to the specific article?

Originally Posted by BadassHo

they could only close the straits with mines, and they can only keep that closed for 20-30 days maximum. the french, british, germans, dutch, italians, all of europe...they have support ships in the straits also plus minesweepers. they are there to assist our warships and to help open the straits. tehran closes those straits, and all the western world is against them, and we'll get help from israel. as isreal would be fighting hezbollah in lebanon but a full scale invasion wouldnt take isreal long to accomplish there.

Are you sure of this? Iran doesn't just have mines, they also have large stockpiles of anti-ship missles, some quite modern but the vast majority are the old and reliable warhorse the Exocet.

An Exocet is not a great threat to modern warships but would wreck havoc on civilian ships. And it doesn't require a great deal of infrastructure, since they can be fired from ground-based trucks. In the rugged terrain of the Iranian coast, such units might lurk undetected even with intense air surveillance. And even if supressed, just the potential of being hit will make maritime insurance providers think twice about covering ships crossing the straits. Assurances of safety would have to be extended. That means boots on the ground and close escort by anti-missile vessels.

Originally Posted by BadassHo

and irans real threats.......air, naval, and missile locations, anti aircraft and communications will be pulverized. quickly.

No doubt they will take a drubbing, but all it takes for civilian vessels to become really skittish about crossing the straits is one hit. And I think the Iranians already have the assets in place to quickly close the straits. They aren't stupid, unlike Saddam Hussein.

Quite frankly my position is based more on market volatility than military concerns. The way things are right now, the markets will overreact to supply disruptions and any statements the US makes about safety or the length/nature of hostilities will be considered dubious due to the track record of false statements in the past(WMD's, greeted as liberators etc).

You just don't have upper hand in this conflict when you consider the big picture.

[BadassHo]

their missile locations will be knocked out first. and we have good anti-missile chain guns on our ships and a row smaller vessels dedicated to anti-missile warfare.

you dont need boots on the ground. you can shut down their ability to aim the missiles and destroy many of their launcing sites. geez.


sure we have the upper hand. the reason to war with iran, which we can contain them and blockade them until they are poor and broken and never a threat again. we never need to invade. any attempt by them to move divisions to their borders to attack us will let the world finally see how a division on the move can be wiped out by air power alone.

releasing the strategic oil reserves will maintain us here in America. we have them, might as well use the reserves one time finally.

being able to kick the mullahs out of power is worth it. and we do have the upper hand when it comes down to taking the gloves off.