http://www.ft.com/cms/s/66d0a912-7db...0779e2340.html
As Jan Peter Balkenende sets about building a coalition government in the Netherlands after last week's general election, he faces the prospect of a shift in government policy.
The election reflected a surge in support for parties on the far right and left, and a fall in the number of seats held by centrist parties. While Mr Balkenende, as the head of the single largest party, the Christian Democrat Alliance, is likely to continue as prime minister, a coalition of at least three political parties is inevitable.
The most likely outcome is a coalition of CDA, Social Democrats [PvdA] and either ChristenUnie, a small religious party, or the leftwing Socialist party.
The inclusion of the Socialist party could trigger a foreign policy shift. The party demands a withdrawal of Dutch troops from Afghanistan, where they are part of a Nato mission, and opposes an attempt to revive the European Union's constitutional treaty, rejected in a referendum last year.
The PvdA wants to halt plans to privatise Amsterdam's Schiphol airport and Dutch involvement in the US-led production of the Joint Strike Fighter aircraft, in which Dutch business has invested hundreds of millions of euros.
There are deep divisions over taxes, which have made Dutch employers wary of a leftwing government bias, people close to the employers' federation have said.
A CDA, PvdA and SP coalition was the public's preferred choice in a weekend opinion poll for Dutch television. The Socialists won 25 seats, compared with nine in 2003, after the final tally of votes. PvdA won 33, nine fewer than in 2003.
De Volkskrant, the left-leaning newspaper, warned in a weekend editorial that a cabinet including the CDA and SP would mean a "powerless, bickering" government. The newspaper said the only viable option was a CDA, PvdA and Christen-Unie coalition.
But political commentators said the process of building a coalition could drag on into the new year.
At the weekend Queen Beatrix appointed Rein Jan Hoekstra, a 65-year-old civil servant, as "informateur". Mr Hoekstra, who advised Ruud Lubbers, the former Dutch prime minister, and heads a CDA research institute, must mediate among party leaders and attempt to reach agreement on the shape of a coalition.
If Mr Balkenende's fourth government in less than five years is to fare better than his previous administrations, which were dogged by political feuding, he will have to compromise.
The process will test the Dutch "polder model", a consensus-based system in which rivals co-operate in times of crisis. Even if the Socialists do not make it to government, Mr Balken-ende's new allies will level tough demands.
Both PvdA and Christen-Unie want a general pardon for 26,000 failed asylum seekers resident in the Netherlands, a move resisted by Mr Balkenende's previous centre-right government.
To further complicate matters, Geert Wilders, the far-right anti-Islam politician whose one-man party won nine seats, is likely to insist on talks to form a centre-right alliance with CDA, his Freedom party, the liberal VVD, and ChristenUnie.
