[Octavian]

Originally Posted by Zankou

But on the other hand ... finance experts are the only people who get demolished if their analysis of the markets is incorrect or inaccurate.

Sarcasm? hope so..



On another note though, I recall having a very heated debate in here about this entire issue over a year ago. I made the distinct point that the other shoe would eventually fall and it did, in a HUGE way. The debate came between the time that the Dillon Read Hedge Fund and the Bear Stearns Hedge Funds collapsed.

There's more to the housing crisis than simply housing and inflated real estate prices. Peter Schiff, (I sadly admit) an advisory to the former candidate Ron Paul, really does a good job of explaining the underlying issue that plagues our economy right now. The housing/mortgage issue is a piece, albeit a large one, of what is and has been a generally risky and economically shortsighted practice.

Watch:

YouTube - 8/28/2006-Peter Schiff On Kudlow & Company

[kingstu]

Originally Posted by Octavian

On another note though, I recall having a very heated debate in here about this entire issue over a year ago. I made the distinct point that the other shoe would eventually fall and it did, in a HUGE way. The debate came between the time that the Dillon Read Hedge Fund and the Bear Stearns Hedge Funds collapsed.

Where you been dude? I remember the debate too. We were arguing even though we basically agreed about everything. I'm actually surprised this hasn't had a larger impact on the economy as a whole.

Does it show the resilience of our $14T economy or the brilliance of the regulators? You can probably guess which side I'm on.

We still haven’t fallen into a recession…though I can’t imagine we will avoid it too much longer.

Of course…this turd…I mean former Fed chairman is still out there opening his mouth…IMHO he’s trying to iron over his colossal fuck up.

Greenspan said he did not believe arguments that the housing problems in the U.S. were due to interest rates being too low during his tenure. "As far as I'm concerned, the data do not support it (that argument). The housing bubble is clearly an international phenomenon."

Economy on brink of recession, Greenspan says | Reuters

Now I hope that was sarcasm…

[AznTrojan]

it's all based on greed.. and the american culture of consumerism.. no one saves anymore..

[chokingvictim]

Originally Posted by AznTrojan

it's all based on greed.. and the american culture of consumerism.. no one saves anymore..

It is difficult for many people to save money when they feel that they should enjoy the same standard of living of their parents. I think that a lot of Americans who are just recently (within the last 8 years) buying houses think that they can enjoy the same standard of living of their parents.
Unfortunately, people now have to work much longer hours for much lower pay than their parents (assuming they are in their mid 20's to early 30's). In the 50's and 60's a man could support a wife and kids and live in a 3 bedroom house in a decent neighborhood. Now it takes both parents working full-time with no kids to buy a house like that, unless the breadwinner is earning a more upper-middle class income. I think Americans just haven't accepted that yet. They haven't realized that they are working more hours for lower pay and all the while enjoying a lower standard of living than was the case 30 years ago.

[CenterMass]

Originally Posted by Ultimo Hombre

Lender: "Hey, Jerome, sit down. I'll give you $200K at 4% interest. Your montly payment will be $1,000. Here, look at your income, and current expenses. You and I can both see you can afford $1,000 a month."

Jerome: "Yeah, I can afford $1,000 a month. But you are offering me a "variable" rate so that 5% will go up to %18-%25 in only two years- in which case my montly payment will be too much for me to pay. Sorry."

Lender: "OH, NO, NO, NO!!! That's just a technicality. You see, Jerome, in two years you just come back and see me and I'll GUARANTEE that I'll re-finance your loan to keep you at 5%."

In two years Jerome goes to see his lender who laughs at him and tells him to fuck off. Forclosure.

That's the way it went down, son. It's faud. Unethcial behavior.

Yeah, and Jerome OVER-ESTIMATED his worth

FUCK EM!

And dont give me this "Jerome was this naive borrower thinking he only had to pay 1000 a month" shit

Jerome shouldve known better in this world.


I'm not Jermome

I'm doing fine......

[megaseth7]

Go listen to what they are saying at the Financial Times. From the sound of it, it seems this whole thing is just getting going.

FT.com / US Daily View

[megaseth7]

Originally Posted by chokingvictim

It is difficult for many people to save money when they feel that they should enjoy the same standard of living of their parents. I think that a lot of Americans who are just recently (within the last 8 years) buying houses think that they can enjoy the same standard of living of their parents.
Unfortunately, people now have to work much longer hours for much lower pay than their parents (assuming they are in their mid 20's to early 30's). In the 50's and 60's a man could support a wife and kids and live in a 3 bedroom house in a decent neighborhood. Now it takes both parents working full-time with no kids to buy a house like that, unless the breadwinner is earning a more upper-middle class income. I think Americans just haven't accepted that yet. They haven't realized that they are working more hours for lower pay and all the while enjoying a lower standard of living than was the case 30 years ago.

And well even when most peoples parents were experiencing a better overall standard of living most of them showed greater economic discretion.

[Octavian]

Originally Posted by kingstu

Where you been dude? I remember the debate too. We were arguing even though we basically agreed about everything. I'm actually surprised this hasn't had a larger impact on the economy as a whole.

Does it show the resilience of our $14T economy or the brilliance of the regulators? You can probably guess which side I'm on.

We still haven’t fallen into a recession…though I can’t imagine we will avoid it too much longer.

Of course…this turd…I mean former Fed chairman is still out there opening his mouth…IMHO he’s trying to iron over his colossal fuck up.



Now I hope that was sarcasm…

Been soooo busy... just got back from a 2 week trip around Itay a week ago.. moved into a new apt. with the girl.

We are both in agreement that Bernanke is garbage. The guy allowed himself and the Fed to pander to hedge funds and I-Banks and the Street came to price in his movements and decisions.

I think you are right that this could have had a bigger impact on the economy but I think there's still time before we really analyze the overall impact. There are several extraordinary factors that have aided, or rather - masked what's really going on in the US economy. I think that a lot of the money that has flooded out of the financials has piled into Tech. and Commodities, making both a little bloated right now. I write that not because of my own personal in depth analysis but from most of the reading that I do about the market and where the movement is. The value of the dollar is also masking what would be a really weak GDP.

I also think that this mess is still yet to truly bring its full effects. Lehman has been a mess and David Einhorn was SPOT ON when he called out their sketchy accounting and inability to explain certain assets. It does bring into question the internal controls of a company that was at one point, THE most respected mortgage paper player in the sector. That Lehman originally began dumping its own paper a year ago, spun off masses of garbage bonds to the Govt. in that one-time offer and the fact that financial partner firms have warned against dealing with them, all point towards another collapse.

I think this could go on for quite a while actually and we are yet to see many of the smaller regional banks go under. Some will and that coupled with the general hard times of the entire financial sector along with Airline and Auto woes and you have yourself a nice loss in the jobs report. That's the same jobs report that many economists have pointed to (I even referenced it one night in here with you and GBJJ..etc.) as a factor that would prevent recession.

Recession? technically - maybe not.... Stagflation? absolutely.

On a side note, believe it or not, I am quickly becoming a HUGE proponent of off-shore drilling in the face of spiking oil prices. I think that US oil companies and levered sectors stand to make a lot of money on it and it can only help what is a bloated barrel of crude.

[kingstu]

Originally Posted by Octavian

Stagflation? absolutely.

I've heard this quite a bit...I really hope not.

Originally Posted by Octavian

On a side note, believe it or not, I am quickly becoming a HUGE proponent of off-shore drilling in the face of spiking oil prices. I think that US oil companies and levered sectors stand to make a lot of money on it and it can only help what is a bloated barrel of crude.

I don’t think we have any alternative in the short term (10 years).

[Octavian]

Originally Posted by kingstu

I've heard this quite a bit...I really hope not.



I don’t think we have any alternative in the short term (10 years).

Good to see you are still around btw..