[nofatchicks]

Originally Posted by Darwinist

I´m curious what you base your hunch on?

Contrarian thinking. Serious answer. Having watched markets for a long time, every time people believe something cant happen, it does.

[USAMMAFAN]

other then my earlier post this was actually decent post of yours

[clmetal]

Originally Posted by USAMMAFAN

once again, as you have pointed out, out government is in debt, cutting taxes will not reduce the debt

you cant cut income, keep spending the same, and not raise debt

I was just pointing out the foolishness of this event. It has nothing to do with the post

Our national debt is almost impossible to repay. It is more than 3x the entire federal budget and the federal budget will explode from SS soon, when it flips from a net cash in to a net cash out and then grows more and more significant in our budget.

[Darwinist]

Originally Posted by nofatchicks

Contrarian thinking. Serious answer. Having watched markets for a long time, every time people believe something cant happen, it does.

Hmmm....and do you think that this can go so far as to violate the laws of thermodynamics?

How deep have you looked into these things? Scientifically I mean? Surely you have read the major books out there that predict ever-shrinking oil supplies from here on out?

If you haven´t I can recommend two very good non-hysteria books for you, both written by respected petroleum geologists.

[nofatchicks]

Originally Posted by Darwinist

Hmmm....and do you think that this can go so far as to violate the laws of thermodynamics?

How deep have you looked into these things? Scientifically I mean? Surely you have read the major books out there that predict ever-shrinking oil supplies from here on out?

If you haven´t I can recommend two very good non-hysteria books for you, both written by respected petroleum geologists.

It may sound strange, but I've traded energy futures for years and I know very little about the energy business. I dont run a large hedge fund, so it's not important to me. Mostly how I trade is with technical indicators anyway, but as far as scientific theory, it's important, but it ignores the fact that most markets, especially volitile ones like oil and gas, are psychological in nature.

[clmetal]

nofatties - I don't doubt that securities and value are based on speculation and supply and demand

but here, we project surging demands without surging supplies (for instance, the UAE expects to dry up in less than 10 years, SA is often accused of embellishing their supply).

Those concerns are captured to an extent in today's prices, but it does not mean that they can not be bid up even higher

[Darwinist]

Originally Posted by nofatchicks

It may sound strange, but I've traded energy futures for years and I know very little about the energy business. I dont run a large hedge fund, so it's not important to me. Mostly how I trade is with technical indicators anyway, but as far as scientific theory, it's important, but it ignores the fact that most markets, especially volitile ones like oil and gas, are psychological in nature.

whoa....I agree that markets are psychological in nature, and often market prices rise and fall over the most inconsequential things(one recession in Iceland fish prices was traced directly to the Monica Lewinsky blowjob for god´s sake!), but optimism counts for little when it collides with the big brick wall called Physics.

I´m gonna suggest you read two books, neither is all that heavy going and their authors know their shit, both are lifelong industry insiders with impeccable credentials.

The first is simply called Hubbards Peak and was written by M King Hubbard's collegue at Shell Petroleum, a man called Kenneth Daffeyes. It´s both a very entertaining and intriguing primer to what oil is, how it comes into existance and how it´s extracted and then proceeds to spell out exactly what the Peak Oil model is actually all about and why it should be considered accurate. He even has all the original mathametical equations in the back.

The second one is called Twilight in the Desert and written by a man called Matthew Simmons. He´s intimately familiar with the Saudi oil industry and goes into more detail about how it operates, what it´s current status is and exactly why the ME is so important.

I´d consider both books must-reads. Hubbards Peak is short and can be covered in a short time and is also a good reference book to have around, while Twilight is more heavy going.

[nofatchicks]

Originally Posted by cl****l

nofatties - I don't doubt that securities and value are based on speculation and supply and demand

but here, we project surging demands without surging supplies (for instance, the UAE expects to dry up in less than 10 years, SA is often accused of embellishing their supply).

Those concerns are captured to an extent in today's prices, but it does not mean that they can not be bid up even higher

Darwinist said that oil would NEVER go below $35. I think if he said that it would rarely go below $35 and probably never stay there for long, I would have agreed with him. Markets do crazy things.

*fondly remembers gold spike of 2001 and the car it bought me*

edit: big gold spike was 2000, my 911 tt was a 2001.

[nofatchicks]

Originally Posted by Darwinist

whoa....I agree that markets are psychological in nature, and often market prices rise and fall over the most inconsequential things(one recession in Iceland fish prices was traced directly to the Monica Lewinsky blowjob for god´s sake!), but optimism counts for little when it collides with the big brick wall called Physics.

I´m gonna suggest you read two books, neither is all that heavy going and their authors know their shit, both are lifelong industry insiders with impeccable credentials.

The first is simply called Hubbards Peak and was written by M King Hubbard's collegue at Shell Petroleum, a man called Kenneth Daffeyes. It´s both a very entertaining and intriguing primer to what oil is, how it comes into existance and how it´s extracted and then proceeds to spell out exactly what the Peak Oil model is actually all about and why it should be considered accurate. He even has all the original mathametical equations in the back.

The second one is called Twilight in the Desert and written by a man called Matthew Simmons. He´s intimately familiar with the Saudi oil industry and goes into more detail about how it operates, what it´s current status is and exactly why the ME is so important.

I´d consider both books must-reads. Hubbards Peak is short and can be covered in a short time and is also a good reference book to have around, while Twilight is more heavy going.

thanks for the recs. I will look into them.

[clmetal]

Originally Posted by nofatchicks

Darwinist said that oil would NEVER go below $35. I think if he said that it would rarely go below $35 and probably never stay there for long, I would have agreed with him. Markets do crazy things.

*fondly remembers gold spike of 2001 and the car it bought me*

alright then.