Are Banks Still Lending? - Page 5

MODE ROGUE · 10-11-2008, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingstu

I can only speak from my experience. I have not tried funding yet. Shouldn't there be a sharp drop in real estate lending then?

Like I said earlier, I appreciate your charts from the St. Louis Fed but they make zero sense to me. Countless brokers have gone out of business. Giant lending institutions have gone bankrupt or are in process. The biggest banks in the world are laying off huge numbers of employees in the mortgage sector. Home sales figures have completely tanked. These are undeniable, FACTS.

So, who exactly does the St. Louis Fed say is receiving these loans because their numbers completely contradict everything else that’s happening in the market.?.?

kingstu · 10-11-2008, 02:01 PM

Take a look at this...play around with the date ranges and see for yourself....

St. Louis Fed: Series: REALLN, Real Estate Loans at All Commercial Banks

kingstu · 10-11-2008, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MODE ROGUE

Like I said earlier, I appreciate your charts from the St. Louis Fed but they make zero sense to me.

You have to look past your own experience and look at the data. The FED has no reason to manipulate the data and even if they did…the data can be independently verified.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MODE ROGUE

Countless brokers have gone out of business.

This is exactly what you would expect to happen in a bubble. How many tech workers and companies went down in 2001?

Quote:

Originally Posted by MODE ROGUE

Giant lending institutions have gone bankrupt or are in process. The biggest banks in the world are laying off huge numbers of employees in the mortgage sector. Home sales figures have completely tanked. These are undeniable, FACTS.

How many banks have failed compared to how many banks are in the U.S.?

kingstu · 10-11-2008, 02:29 PM

There are over 7500 banks in the U.S. Analysts expect 150 or so to fail over the next 12 to 18 months. More than 1000 failed during the S&L crisis.

Analysts say more U.S. banks will fail - International Herald Tribune

viruswitshoes · 10-11-2008, 02:30 PM

you might see like 5 threads that i tried to start pop up shortly (damn inefficient board) but here was the meat of the thread. i think it applies here: (warning this is largely baseless speculation)

one of my theories is that this is all just a way for those with money to buy stocks relatively cheap and make a killing in a few years. they caused panic so the average american with a fund or 401k would leave the market and they could buy it up for cents on the dollar. same thing is happening with properties i'm sure. everything is dirt cheap and the average person is selling what they can because of the panic or because they cannot afford it.

so in what looks to be a transition to socialism, maybe this is just yet another example of the wealthy figuring out a way to manipulate the market so yet another transfer of wealth takes place.

the paranoid part of me thinks that the wealthy did not like when the class lines were being blurred after the internet/tech boom in the late 90's, because the value of their wealth (social value) was decreasing. so they found a way to sucker people into an artificial housing market and cash in on the devaluation of property and stocks.

kingstu · 10-11-2008, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by viruswitshoes

one of my theories is that this is all just a way for those with money to buy stocks relatively cheap and make a killing in a few years.

This won’t work because everyone benefits if they invest. I have personally doubled my 401k contributions. I look at this as the best buying opportunity in my lifetime…even better than the 1987 crash.

MODE ROGUE · 10-11-2008, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingstu

You have to look past your own experience and look at the data. The FED has no reason to manipulate the data and even if they did…the data can be independently verified.

Home sales figures have dropped by double digit percentages over the past 2 years. How can lending figures be steady when the number of transactions is plummeting everywhere?

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingstu

This is exactly what you would expect to happen in a bubble. How many tech workers and companies went down in 2001?

That’s exactly the point. Brokerages are going out of business because lending is DOWN. Not consistent or climbing. Down.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingstu

How many banks have failed compared to how many banks are in the U.S.?

The proper question is “how many mortgage brokers, correspondent lenders, and banks have failed compared to how many banks are in the US?”

Care to take a guess at that number?

**GermanBJJ** · 10-11-2008, 02:40 PM

I think you aren't looking at the total information. The Federal Reserve has jurisdiction over all regulated commercial banking institutions. The FED does not, however, have jurisdiction over what is called the "Shadow Banking" system, or private unregulated banking institutions. Your FED numbers don't take into account the Shadow Banking system, only the regulated commercial banking system.

The "Shadow Banking" system, up until very recently, was responsible for 70% of all lending in the United States. Now the Shadow Banking system is in total meltdown. And that banking system is much larger than, and more leveraged than, the commercial banks.

So here is the problem that has developed: the system responsible for 70% of the lending in the US has imploded and, by looking at the TED spread, we know that the commercial banks have now basically stopped lending to each other.

So, as a commercial banker yourself, I am sure your firm is going well and still lending to credit-worthy individuals. But the commercial banking system isn't even close to large enough to provide the liquidity that the US economy was used to having pumped into it. The gears are grinding to a halt.

MODE ROGUE · 10-11-2008, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingstu

There are over 7500 banks in the U.S. Analysts expect 150 or so to fail over the next 12 to 18 months. More than 1000 failed during the S&L crisis.

Analysts say more U.S. banks will fail - International Herald Tribune

Look up the numbers on failing mortgage companies and correspondent lenders to get the true picture of what’s happening in the lending industry.

viruswitshoes · 10-11-2008, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingstu

This won’t work because everyone benefits if they invest. I have personally doubled my 401k contributions. I look at this as the best buying opportunity in my lifetime…even better than the 1987 crash.

i thought 401k's were managed for you?

(i'm a right brain kind of guy so all these terms confuse the hell out of me)