[inflames6gojira]

Originally Posted by jrdenn

Going over each individual category it is evident that BJ is superior in most of them and it begs the question as to how Sherk plans to win the fight. If Sherk is relying on BJ running out of gas then he's playing a dangerous game and in my opinion he's giving himself about a 25% chance of winning.

Striking: BJ as very underrated boxing, he went 3 rounds with Machida who outweighed him by 40 lbs and he gave as good as he got. I'm not so sure Sherk could stand 3 rounds with Machida and expect to leave the cage upright. In other fights BJ has out boxed his opponents as well, from Gomi to GSP to dominating Joe Daddy and KO'ing Uno in 11 seconds. BJ has good hands.

Grappling: BJ has a massive advantage in the grappling department. He is the first American-born winner of the World Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Championship (Mundial) in the black belt category. More notable to me is his wins over Rodrigo Gracie & Renzo Gracie who are both 185lb fighters and BJJ studs. Not only did BJ defeat Renzo but he won the fight on the mat. Again, I'm not sure Sherk could survive 3 rounds on the mat with Renzo and not leave an arm behind.

Wrestling: While Sherk is clearly the better wrestler I ask you to put it in perspective meaning Sherk's wrestling is only effective if BJ can't negate it. Since we know that BJ's takedown defense is as good as it get's I don't see Sherk's wrestling being an advantage. Remember how much trouble Sherk had taking Diaz down and BJ has much better TD defense that Diaz does.

Cardio: This is the only area that's undeniably Sherk's advantage and since Sherk can't finish fights he's hoping to get it to the 4th and 5th rounds. Other than Kenny Florian, the only top 10 opponent Sherk has beaten is an 18 year old Karo Parisyan which he did twice. What's important is that 18 year old Karo Parisyan is the only top 10 opponent Sherk's ever finished.

So out of all the advantages Sherk has over Penn it is his wrestling and insane cardio that stand out. To that I ask you to go back to the Nick Diaz fight where Sherk struggled to get it to the mat. Every time Sherk shot in Diaz would sprawl beautifully and stuff it. Whenever Sherk did complete a takedown he was never able to control Nick's body to do any damage. Many times Diaz ended up on top of Sherk by sweeps, standing kimura's or other submission attempts he used to transition into top position. I see BJ having the same successs. While it's true that Sherk defeated Diaz it's also true that Diaz is not BJ Penn and if Sherk has as much trouble taking BJ down as he did Diaz then he's going to lose.

Sherk isn't going to submit BJ, he isn't going to KO him and since he hasn't had a TKO over a top 10 opponent since Karo 8 years ago, I don't see a ref stoppage. I've laid out all the reason's Sherk CAN'T win, this leaves a UD being the only route for a Sherk victory, about a 25% chance of happening. Good luck!

i doesnt matter who beat who

it is styles and how each of them fight

for example

there is

fighter #1
fighter #2
fighter # 3

fighter 1 can beat fighter 3 but fighter 1 cant beat fighter 2
fighter 3 can beat fighter 2 but not fighter 1


sherks boxing is better. penns boxing isnt that great he hits hard and does a lot of damage but sherk has better boxing technique wise.... do i think sherk can outstrike him? no not really

"More notable to me is his wins over Rodrigo Gracie & Renzo Gracie who are both 185lb fighters and BJJ studs"

renzo
Loss B.J. Penn Decision (Unanimous) K-1 - World Grand Prix Hawaii 7/29/2005 3 5:00
Loss Carlos Newton Decision (Split) PRIDE - Bushido 1 10/5/2003 2 5:00
Loss Shungo Oyama Decision (Unanimous) PRIDE 21 - Demolition 6/23/2002 3 5:00
Win Michiyoshi Ohara Decision (Unanimous) PRIDE 17 - Championship Chaos 11/3/2001 3 5:00
Loss Dan Henderson KO (Punch) PRIDE 13 - Collision Course 3/25/2001 1 1:40
Loss Kazushi Sakuraba Technical Submission (Kimura) PRIDE 10 - Return of the Warriors 8/27/2000 2 9:43
Loss Kiyoshi Tamura Decision (Unanimous) Rings - King of Kings 1999 Final 2/26/2000 2 5:00

i think sherk could have beat him

anyway i think the fight is closer than you think and i cant wait to c it

[jrdenn]

Originally Posted by johnsq316

I think people are just poking fun at the fact that your thread title is "Sherk can't win, he only has a 25% chance" which is contradictory.

I get what you were saying.

I disagree that if it gets to the 4th or 5th round Sherk only has a 25% chance.


If it makes it halfway through the 3rd I make Sherk a favorite at that point to win the fight.

Yea I got you, but I'm giving Sherk a 25% to win overall but it only applies if he can get it to the 4th and 5th rounds.

We'll see very soon!

[Aas Gutú Adéli]

Originally Posted by positivebalance

Now that you've used the old "I'll post intelligently on the topic hand" card...

Let's Talk HMC and how he would fit into a S. Korean helicopter.

Agreed.
I think the answer would be "not well."
When I think of the maximum load of Hueys, I grow skeptical that the man could be transported with any ease by way of light helicopter.

Perhaps a boat would better suit him?
Do they have something like the USO?

[6StingHero]

Sherk is going to run a pace against BJ the likes of which Penn has never seen. Sherk is going to ware BJ down, hold him on the ground and throw shot elbows against the cage. Sherk isn't going to look for a simple take down in the center of the octagon, he's going to run through Penn, slam him into the cage, suck both his legs in and short slam him into the ground. I can already see it, BJ will fight off his back for the first 2 rounds trying to pull submission attempts off, he's going to get tired and by the third round be completely worn out. Sean Sherk will break BJ, Sherk fights at his pace, no one else's.

If Penn gases, this fight will look exactly like Penn/Hughes 2. BJ will come out arms down, slow and tired.

If the odd maker put BJ a 4 to 1 favorite (they won't the odds will be next to even) I am putting my money on Sherk.

[Aas Gutú Adéli]

Originally Posted by jrdenn

Right, but Sherk has 34 fights and he's 35 years old. If not now when?

That is about exactly the age Randy was when he beat his first to 10 guy.

[leugim41004]

Originally Posted by bma44

I'd take Sherk at 4 to 1 odds.

What? that doesnt make sense 4 to 1. so your saying 4 out of 1 chances is correct? check your mathmatics

[leugim41004]

Originally Posted by 6StingHero

Sherk is going to run a pace against BJ the likes of which Penn has never seen. Sherk is going to ware BJ down, hold him on the ground and throw shot elbows against the cage. Sherk isn't going to look for a simple take down in the center of the octagon, he's going to run through Penn, slam him into the cage, suck both his legs in and short slam him into the ground. I can already see it, BJ will fight off his back for the first 2 rounds trying to pull submission attempts off, he's going to get tired and by the third round be completely worn out. Sean Sherk will break BJ, Sherk fights at his pace, no one else's.

If Penn gases, this fight will look exactly like Penn/Hughes 2. BJ will come out arms down, slow and tired.

If the odd maker put BJ a 4 to 1 favorite (they won't the odds will be next to even) I am putting my money on Sherk.

What? that doesnt make sense 4 to 1. so your saying 4 out of 1 chances is correct? check your mathmatics

[johnsq316]

Originally Posted by jrdenn

Who has Sherk ever finished? Come on .. name just 1 guy?

A UD is still a win.

Look, I agree, Sherk's style can be less than aesthetically pleasing at times. I'd rather see BJ win because I enjoy watching BJ fight, even if I don't really like him. But solid striking, takedowns, and being active in guard are all legit tactics that will earn Sherk points.

I favor BJ in this fight, because I think he's more dangerous than most of the people Sherk has fought and I think he can do enough damage to put Sherk in a bad position and get a sub. But, it's only a slight favorite. If Sherk can weather the early storm he will rack up enough points in 3-5 to win a 48-47 decision. Or, as someone else suggested, he will grind out a TKO in the late rounds because BJ will be too tired to defend himself.

[facedancer]

Originally Posted by johnsq316

A UD is still a win.

Look, I agree, Sherk's style can be less than aesthetically pleasing at times. I'd rather see BJ win because I enjoy watching BJ fight, even if I don't really like him. But solid striking, takedowns, and being active in guard are all legit tactics that will earn Sherk points.

I favor BJ in this fight, because I think he's more dangerous than most of the people Sherk has fought and I think he can do enough damage to put Sherk in a bad position and get a sub. But, it's only a slight favorite. If Sherk can weather the early storm he will rack up enough points in 3-5 to win a 48-47 decision. Or, as someone else suggested, he will grind out a TKO in the late rounds because BJ will be too tired to defend himself.

BJ has gone 5 rounds before...with less training and dedication than he has now.

[Z_Tous]

Originally Posted by 6StingHero

Sherk is going to run a pace against BJ the likes of which Penn has never seen. Sherk is going to ware BJ down, hold him on the ground and throw shot elbows against the cage. Sherk isn't going to look for a simple take down in the center of the octagon, he's going to run through Penn, slam him into the cage, suck both his legs in and short slam him into the ground. I can already see it, BJ will fight off his back for the first 2 rounds trying to pull submission attempts off, he's going to get tired and by the third round be completely worn out. Sean Sherk will break BJ, Sherk fights at his pace, no one else's.

If Penn gases, this fight will look exactly like Penn/Hughes 2. BJ will come out arms down, slow and tired.

If the odd maker put BJ a 4 to 1 favorite (they won't the odds will be next to even) I am putting my money on Sherk.

GSP has a size, strength and wrestling advantage over Sherk and it was very difficult for him to do that to Penn so I doubt Sherk is going to have an easier go of it.