[UFCrules]

BJ all the way

[ussoc21]

i think sherk should be the favorite. he'll take bj down eventually, in the mean time his dirty boxing and really overall boxing technique is much more technical than bj's, and with penn not knowing if it's a shot to the face or a shot at his ankles is gonna make it difficult for him to win rounds. sherk is a different fighter from hughes, he can strike and jits, but people seem to forget that.

[ScotiaMMA]

Originally Posted by Zedlepln

Strength advantage?

Sherk's wrestling isn't all about technique. He's seriously strong, too.

That said, I'd give him about a 1 in 4 chance to beat BJ. Very dangerous, but obviously not favored.

Look how big Joe Daddy was than BJ and BJ held him down the whole time,and IF....IF Sherk gets BJ down, BJ can pull many submissions of his back, so.

[Yurii]

I don't think Sherk will win this fight. BJ is better at striking and grappling. The only advantage that sherk would have would be cardio but bj knows that. I wouldn't be surprised if bj came in in just as good of cardio shape as sherk for this fight.

[johnsq316]

Originally Posted by jrdenn

Moron, listen. I've laid out all the reason's Sherk CAN'T win, this leaves a UD being the only route for a Sherk victory, about a 25% chance of happening.

Anyone including the UPS man can win .. I just laid out the reason's why it is most likely Sherk can't win. Then I said if he got it into the 4th or 5th rounds he had a 25% chance.

I couldn't explain this all in the title and left it up to readers to understand the meaning. There isn't enough room in the title to write "Sherk can't win unless he get's past rond 1, 2, 3, and BJ tires which will then make it about a 25% chance for a UD win." A bit silly.

I think people are just poking fun at the fact that your thread title is "Sherk can't win, he only has a 25% chance" which is contradictory.

I get what you were saying.

I disagree that if it gets to the 4th or 5th round Sherk only has a 25% chance.

If BJ doesn't finish it in 1 or 2 then he will be in trouble, because Sherk will be just as strong in the 3rd-5th as he was in 1 and 2. BJ in his career has never been stronger late in fights and frequently gasses. Even some of his comments "I'll have just enough cardio to finish Sherk" don't exactly inspire confidence.

If it makes it halfway through the 3rd I make Sherk a favorite at that point to win the fight.

[ussoc21]

Originally Posted by Yurii

I don't think Sherk will win this fight. BJ is better at striking and grappling. The only advantage that sherk would have would be cardio but bj knows that. I wouldn't be surprised if bj came in in just as good of cardio shape as sherk for this fight.

im curious why people think that sherk has the inferior grappling? hermes franca trained with bj in hawaii not too long ago and if you've seen videos of them rolling, bj wins but he sure doesn't look anywhere near as dominant over him as sherk did for 5 rounds. i honestly think people are SERIOUSLY underestimating sherk and overestimating penn.

edit: and i just noticed, cardio as good as sherks??? that would take years of not smoking pot and running mad hilo hills

[Tha_MMAn]

I would not be very surprised if BJ shoots in and gets the takedown. His wrestling is pretty good, he just couldn't show it on great wrestlers like GSP and Hughes.

[The Unicorn]

most betting sites and casinos are giving Sherk the same chances of beating Penn that Tito Ortiz has of beating Machida...

Penn -210
Sherk +180

Machida -220
Ortiz +180

give or take a few...

[jrdenn]

Originally Posted by Aas Gutú Adéli

He's only beaten 1 top 10 opponent and he hasn't finished a top guy in his life unless you count 18 year old Karo.
Not a question, but pretty terrible logic.
You don't have to finish to win.
And you don't have to have a history of beating top 10 opponents to beat top 10 opponents.

There was a time where people could point to Fedor and say "he's never beaten a top 10 guy" The same can be said for any number of guys. Rothwell has never beaten a top 10 guy, but I like his chances against some of the guys on the list. Has Filho beaten any top 10 guys?

Right, but Sherk has 34 fights and he's 35 years old. If not now when?

[jrdenn]

Originally Posted by facedancer

Curtis Brigham

Yikes!