Sherk CAN'T beat Penn - A 25% chance if BJ gasses
Going over each individual category it is evident that BJ is superior in most of them and it begs the question as to how Sherk plans to win the fight. If Sherk is relying on BJ running out of gas then he's playing a dangerous game and in my opinion he's giving himself about a 25% chance of winning.
Striking: BJ as very underrated boxing, he went 3 rounds with Machida who outweighed him by 40 lbs and he gave as good as he got. I'm not so sure Sherk could stand 3 rounds with Machida and expect to leave the cage upright. In other fights BJ has out boxed his opponents as well, from Gomi to GSP to dominating Joe Daddy and KO'ing Uno in 11 seconds. BJ has good hands.
Grappling: BJ has a massive advantage in the grappling department. He is the first American-born winner of the World Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Championship (Mundial) in the black belt category. More notable to me is his wins over Rodrigo Gracie & Renzo Gracie who are both 185lb fighters and BJJ studs. Not only did BJ defeat Renzo but he won the fight on the mat. Again, I'm not sure Sherk could survive 3 rounds on the mat with Renzo and not leave an arm behind.
Wrestling: While Sherk is clearly the better wrestler I ask you to put it in perspective meaning Sherk's wrestling is only effective if BJ can't negate it. Since we know that BJ's takedown defense is as good as it get's I don't see Sherk's wrestling being an advantage. Remember how much trouble Sherk had taking Diaz down and BJ has much better TD defense that Diaz does.
Cardio: This is the only area that's undeniably Sherk's advantage and since Sherk can't finish fights he's hoping to get it to the 4th and 5th rounds. Other than Kenny Florian, the only top 10 opponent Sherk has beaten is an 18 year old Karo Parisyan which he did twice. What's important is that 18 year old Karo Parisyan is the only top 10 opponent Sherk's ever finished.
So out of all the advantages Sherk has over Penn it is his wrestling and insane cardio that stand out. To that I ask you to go back to the Nick Diaz fight where Sherk struggled to get it to the mat. Every time Sherk shot in Diaz would sprawl beautifully and stuff it. Whenever Sherk did complete a takedown he was never able to control Nick's body to do any damage. Many times Diaz ended up on top of Sherk by sweeps, standing kimura's or other submission attempts he used to transition into top position. I see BJ having the same successs. While it's true that Sherk defeated Diaz it's also true that Diaz is not BJ Penn and if Sherk has as much trouble taking BJ down as he did Diaz then he's going to lose.
Sherk isn't going to submit BJ, he isn't going to KO him and since he hasn't had a TKO over a top 10 opponent since Karo 8 years ago, I don't see a ref stoppage. I've laid out all the reason's Sherk CAN'T win, this leaves a UD being the only route for a Sherk victory, about a 25% chance of happening. Good luck!
Last edited by jrdenn : 05-15-2008 at 02:41 PM.
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