Why the sudden rash of upsets is NOT unusual

[M>U]

All the comments about this being "the end of MMA" and "UFC 70 = Armageddon" and "wheres the MMA god in 2007?" are annoying and retarted and your only exposing yourself as a mainstream/casual hype-fed WWE type fan and not a true hardcore MMA fan.

The nature of MMA itself is unpredictable and the talent pool in the sport is constantly fluxuating. There shouldn't be these perceived notions that such and such fighter is the #7 LHW in the world and that he cant one month go from #7 to #8 and then make his way back up into the top 3 the next month. These rankings arent etched in stone as if they were the 10 commandments or somehting. This sport is always changing, the fighters are always changing, and so should their rankings in the top 10 after each major fight. These perceived notions of fighters and them being idolized like Gods should not even exist for Fedor.

*gasp* "how dare i say Fedor is capable of losing" is what most of the 13 year olds or retards are thinking right now. but it's true and your not a real hardcare MMA fan if you believe otherwise.

One last thing, the PridexUFC shit is retarted as well. Fighters are fighters. So you might prefer a ring or a cage or the anouncers from one org, but to actually go and "nut-hug" a company/corporation is just the stupidest thing ive seen from ignorant pro-wrestling fans on this forum.

Discuss.

[BlazinSkunk]

people seem to forget that this is a sport and the outcomes are not always predictable or exciting.

My guess:
Lots of pro-rasslin fans

[M>U]

Originally Posted by BlazinSkunk

people seem to forget that this is a sport and the outcomes are not always predictable or exciting.

My guess:
Lots of pro-rasslin fans

That's honestly the only way i can imagine the Pride vs. UFC stuff first got started. That and the yungins (talkin' pre-teens).

[mmajunkie12]

Yeah the people that say that this is the end of mma and all this other crap are not true fans of the sport and are just pissed that their boy lost. Typical

[HuggingAway]

I agree. It's been tough to listen, for a very long time in this forum, to how UFC was the inferior organization and that any of PRIDE's top 10 HWs could come to UFC and own everyone.

I've read this about Herring, Werdum, CroCop, Nog, Barnett, etc.

The jury is still out on Nog and Barnett, and sure, CroCop can come back from this.

What's really an exciting time is that guys are coming in, relatively new to the sport, with amazing skill sets.

Other guys are taking their top tier wrestling or BJJ or striking and making massive leaps forward in their areas of weakness.

All of a sudden, a guy who was unbeatable a year ago is caught by a guy who "shouldn't win".

So many people were bashed to shreds on this forum for any of the following (not as much recently, but in the last years):

- Suggesting that UFC was highly competitive against PRIDE, and wouldn't get steamrolled.
- Suggesting that a guy like Serra would be a tough win for GSP.
- Suggesting that anyone off TUF could be a legit title contender (such as Rashad)
- Suggesting that TUF 4 was anything other than a competition for wash-outs.
- Suggesting that Tim Sylvia wouldn't murder Randy, or that it wasn't a waste of a fight...

I mean, how many people literally bitched that UFC didn't want to put on a competitive match for Sylvia and they were feeding him a washed up hall of fame guy?

How many people bitched that CroCop should have got a title shot in his first ever match and not had any tune-up fights?

What about all the recent upsets in PRIDE?

I think we're not just seeing upsets, but partially another evolution of the sport. This many upsets can't just be coincidence.

Guys who didn't have the time or money or partners to train to their full potential in the past are now having that opportunity and we're seeing a vast arms race of improvement in MMA.

Holy shit it's a good time to be a fan.

And let's be truthful here, "The Year of the Upset" has NOT been "The Year of the Fluke".

- Nick Diaz fought hard and with a lot of heart to beat Gomi in a skill submission.
- Matt Serra showed significantly improved striking and smart gameplanning.
- Randy Couture had the perfect gameplan and combination to stun and defeat Sylvia.
- Gonzaga didn't score a "lucky kick" on Mirko... Gonzaga dominated solidly.
- GSP didn't score a "lucky kick" on Matt Hughes either.
- Henderson had a solid game plan against Wandy, who came back from a brutal KO too soon.

We're literally watching guys leapfrog each other in gameplanning and rounding out skills, endurance and heart. A fantastic champion or former champ like Randy or Big Nog better watch their backs because guys are coming up who have the answers for some of what the once undefeatable wiley old vets can do. And what is great, those guys can and ARE evolving.

Awesome time to be a fan.

[DevMahon]

I don't think people are serious, they're just joking around about the unpredictable nature of MMA lately. Say what you want about "the nature of the sport" but there's a reason there are favorites. Upsets happen, they always have and they always will, but this many shocking upsets in big fights, and so close together, is. . . well, shocking. I don't think people are saying that they hate MMA, they just can't believe how all of these fights have been going down. It's not an entirely unreasonable response.

[M>U]

Originally Posted by HuggingAway

I agree. It's been tough to listen, for a very long time in this forum, to how UFC was the inferior organization and that any of PRIDE's top 10 HWs could come to UFC and own everyone.

I've read this about Herring, Werdum, CroCop, Nog, Barnett, etc.

The jury is still out on Nog and Barnett, and sure, CroCop can come back from this.

What's really an exciting time is that guys are coming in, relatively new to the sport, with amazing skill sets.

Other guys are taking their top tier wrestling or BJJ or striking and making massive leaps forward in their areas of weakness.

All of a sudden, a guy who was unbeatable a year ago is caught by a guy who "shouldn't win".

So many people were bashed to shreds on this forum for any of the following (not as much recently, but in the last years):

- Suggesting that UFC was highly competitive against PRIDE, and wouldn't get steamrolled.
- Suggesting that a guy like Serra would be a tough win for GSP.
- Suggesting that anyone off TUF could be a legit title contender (such as Rashad)
- Suggesting that TUF 4 was anything other than a competition for wash-outs.
- Suggesting that Tim Sylvia wouldn't murder Randy, or that it wasn't a waste of a fight...

I mean, how many people literally bitched that UFC didn't want to put on a competitive match for Sylvia and they were feeding him a washed up hall of fame guy?

How many people bitched that CroCop should have got a title shot in his first ever match and not had any tune-up fights?

What about all the recent upsets in PRIDE?

I think we're not just seeing upsets, but partially another evolution of the sport. This many upsets can't just be coincidence.

Guys who didn't have the time or money or partners to train to their full potential in the past are now having that opportunity and we're seeing a vast arms race of improvement in MMA.

Holy shit it's a good time to be a fan.

And let's be truthful here, "The Year of the Upset" has NOT been "The Year of the Fluke".

- Nick Diaz fought hard and with a lot of heart to beat Gomi in a skill submission.
- Matt Serra showed significantly improved striking and smart gameplanning.
- Randy Couture had the perfect gameplan and combination to stun and defeat Sylvia.
- Gonzaga didn't score a "lucky kick" on Mirko... Gonzaga dominated solidly.
- GSP didn't score a "lucky kick" on Matt Hughes either.
- Henderson had a solid game plan against Wandy, who came back from a brutal KO too soon.

We're literally watching guys leapfrog each other in gameplanning and rounding out skills, endurance and heart. A fantastic champion or former champ like Randy or Big Nog better watch their backs because guys are coming up who have the answers for some of what the once undefeatable wiley old vets can do. And what is great, those guys can and ARE evolving.

Awesome time to be a fan.

It's insane, but were actually witnessing this shift in the sport. i love it.

[BJJ Beginner]

Suppose you flip a coin ten times and the results are 6 heads and 4 tails. Well, that's pretty close to the 5/5 outcome you would expect probabilistically, so you probably wouldn't find anything wrong with this. Now let's say you flip a coin ten times and every time it comes up heads. You would think that, since the probabilities of the coin coming up heads and tails are relatively equal, that the coin must somehow be faulty. But you'd be wrong.

The Law of Large Numbers states that the greater the number of independent trials, the closer the observed results will converge to the actual probabilities. In other words, the more times you flip the coin, the closer the results will come to 50% heads and 50% tails. On the other hand, short term results can vary wildly even as the long term results conform to the expected norm.

Say you flip the coin a million times. Looking at the big picture, the results will be fairly close to 500,000 heads and 500,000 tails. But if you look at small chunks of those million coin flips, it would not be at all surprising to see some runs of ten heads in a row, or ten tails. That's just short term variance from the probabilistically expected results.

The same is true of MMA, though there's no way to mathematically calculate the odds of one fighter beating another. If we had millions of fights to look at, the "better" fighter would win the majority of the time. Since the number of fights per year is fairly small, the results are more likely to defy expectations. The rather large number of upsets this year (assuming that our evaluations of those fighters are correct - it's quite possible that the underdogs in those fights were simply better than the favorites they beat) is nothing more than a run of ten heads in a row. Though the sport is relatively new, I'm sure you could find a period in its history in which no upsets occurred. Everything will balance out in the long run, so just relax and enjoy the ride.

[Michaelthebox]

Originally Posted by BJJ Beginner

(assuming that our evaluations of those fighters are correct - it's quite possible that the underdogs in those fights were simply better than the favorites they beat)

I think that is actually more the case, that the evaluations were off. People thought Couture was old and done, when really he was a multiple champ who hasn't slowed down. GSP is probably better than Serra on the ground, but Serra appears to be better than GSP on the feet, which is where the fight took place. And everybody vastly underrated Gonzaga; he has good striking, good wrestling, good BJJ, and he had 20 pounds on Cro Cop.

[Cain Batista]

Originally Posted by HuggingAway

I agree. It's been tough to listen, for a very long time in this forum, to how UFC was the inferior organization and that any of PRIDE's top 10 HWs could come to UFC and own everyone.

I've read this about Herring, Werdum, CroCop, Nog, Barnett, etc.

The jury is still out on Nog and Barnett, and sure, CroCop can come back from this.

What's really an exciting time is that guys are coming in, relatively new to the sport, with amazing skill sets.

Other guys are taking their top tier wrestling or BJJ or striking and making massive leaps forward in their areas of weakness.

All of a sudden, a guy who was unbeatable a year ago is caught by a guy who "shouldn't win".

So many people were bashed to shreds on this forum for any of the following (not as much recently, but in the last years):

- Suggesting that UFC was highly competitive against PRIDE, and wouldn't get steamrolled.
- Suggesting that a guy like Serra would be a tough win for GSP.
- Suggesting that anyone off TUF could be a legit title contender (such as Rashad)
- Suggesting that TUF 4 was anything other than a competition for wash-outs.
- Suggesting that Tim Sylvia wouldn't murder Randy, or that it wasn't a waste of a fight...

I mean, how many people literally bitched that UFC didn't want to put on a competitive match for Sylvia and they were feeding him a washed up hall of fame guy?

How many people bitched that CroCop should have got a title shot in his first ever match and not had any tune-up fights?

What about all the recent upsets in PRIDE?

I think we're not just seeing upsets, but partially another evolution of the sport. This many upsets can't just be coincidence.

Guys who didn't have the time or money or partners to train to their full potential in the past are now having that opportunity and we're seeing a vast arms race of improvement in MMA.

Holy shit it's a good time to be a fan.

And let's be truthful here, "The Year of the Upset" has NOT been "The Year of the Fluke".

- Nick Diaz fought hard and with a lot of heart to beat Gomi in a skill submission.
- Matt Serra showed significantly improved striking and smart gameplanning.
- Randy Couture had the perfect gameplan and combination to stun and defeat Sylvia.
- Gonzaga didn't score a "lucky kick" on Mirko... Gonzaga dominated solidly.
- GSP didn't score a "lucky kick" on Matt Hughes either.
- Henderson had a solid game plan against Wandy, who came back from a brutal KO too soon.

We're literally watching guys leapfrog each other in gameplanning and rounding out skills, endurance and heart. A fantastic champion or former champ like Randy or Big Nog better watch their backs because guys are coming up who have the answers for some of what the once undefeatable wiley old vets can do. And what is great, those guys can and ARE evolving.

Awesome time to be a fan.

agree