My Couture v. Gonzaga Breakdown (Long Read)

Fahrenheit1221 · 08-12-2007, 07:48 PM

Randy Couture (15-8-0) against Gabriel Gonzaga (8-1-0) will be one of the most important fights of 2007. This fight will ultimately determine who has the greatest shot at beating Fedor that hasn't fought him... the winner of this fight simply must fight Fedor, there is simply no question... it HAS to happen.

I think the only way Couture can win this fight is by a Unanimous Decision and I think Gonzaga already knows this. Gonzaga has stated in interviews that he used Fedor's gameplan against Cro Cop and that's how he won... so obviously he's a cerebral style fighter... but so is Randy.

The biggest variable in this fight is Gonzaga scoring a (T)KO over Randy. It happened to Mirko but nobody expected it. Now that we know Gonzaga has KO power, we know a little more of what to expect. So what strategy will Couture go into the fight in these regards? Will he expect Gonzaga to look for a KO or does he think Gonzaga will try to take him down and grapple with him?

I think if the fight goes the ground the advantage goes to Gonzaga, he took down Cro Cop with easy and though I don't see him doing the same thing with Couture I can see the fight ending up on the ground one way or another.

On the ground I'd say they're about even. Couture knows that Gonzaga is dangerous and Gonzaga knows that Couture is the real deal and that he is the champion for a reason.

There are two ways that I think this fight will end:

Randy Couture via Unanimous Decision

or

Gabriel Gonzaga via Submission (My guess? Armbar)

The question is when and how will Gonzaga submit Couture if that's what you think will happen. Some would think earlier rounds, which I have Gonzaga by Armbar in the 2nd myself but if makes it out of the 3rd Round, then I give Couture the win via Unanimous because he has fought in so many long battles that he has what it takes to go the distance with anyone and he's never lost a decision.

The safe bet would be Couture via Unanimous but I think Gonzaga is the real deal and besides... most Pride nuthuggers want Gonzaga to win just so it doesn't make Mirko look even worse, I'm not necessarily in that boat as I had Gonzaga to beat Cro Cop the first time around but I am a Cro Cop fan none-the-less and if Gonzaga beats Couture I think he will prove one and for all that the Cro Cop fight was no fluke and that he's for real.

My Pick: Gonzaga by Armbar; Round 2

Tubster · 08-12-2007, 09:05 PM

Great Couture article of him talking game plan against Gonzaga and what’s next. Worth the read, it’s short too:

http://www.5thround.com/news/couture..._competing.php

CemetaryTump · 08-12-2007, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fahrenheit1221

Randy Couture (15-8-0) against Gabriel Gonzaga (8-1-0) will be one of the most important fights of 2007. This fight will ultimately determine who has the greatest shot at beating Fedor that hasn't fought him... the winner of this fight simply must fight Fedor, there is simply no question... it HAS to happen.

I think the only way Couture can win this fight is by a Unanimous Decision and I think Gonzaga already knows this. Gonzaga has stated in interviews that he used Fedor's gameplan against Cro Cop and that's how he won... so obviously he's a cerebral style fighter... but so is Randy.

The biggest variable in this fight is Gonzaga scoring a (T)KO over Randy. It happened to Mirko but nobody expected it. Now that we know Gonzaga has KO power, we know a little more of what to expect. So what strategy will Couture go into the fight in these regards? Will he expect Gonzaga to look for a KO or does he think Gonzaga will try to take him down and grapple with him?

I think if the fight goes the ground the advantage goes to Gonzaga, he took down Cro Cop with easy and though I don't see him doing the same thing with Couture I can see the fight ending up on the ground one way or another.

On the ground I'd say they're about even. Couture knows that Gonzaga is dangerous and Gonzaga knows that Couture is the real deal and that he is the champion for a reason.

There are two ways that I think this fight will end:

Randy Couture via Unanimous Decision

or

Gabriel Gonzaga via Submission (My guess? Armbar)

The question is when and how will Gonzaga submit Couture if that's what you think will happen. Some would think earlier rounds, which I have Gonzaga by Armbar in the 2nd myself but if makes it out of the 3rd Round, then I give Couture the win via Unanimous because he has fought in so many long battles that he has what it takes to go the distance with anyone and he's never lost a decision.

The safe bet would be Couture via Unanimous but I think Gonzaga is the real deal and besides... most Pride nuthuggers want Gonzaga to win just so it doesn't make Mirko look even worse, I'm not necessarily in that boat as I had Gonzaga to beat Cro Cop the first time around but I am a Cro Cop fan none-the-less and if Gonzaga beats Couture I think he will prove one and for all that the Cro Cop fight was no fluke and that he's for real.

My Pick: Gonzaga by Armbar; Round 2

It will be due to the moons gravatanital pull

Hester65 · 08-12-2007, 09:44 PM

really wasnt a long read, but I also think this fight is ending 1 of 2 ways, UD for Couture or TKO by GG. I dont think he's gonna sub Randy, because it's much harder to sub Randy then KO him at this point in his career

jessps · 08-13-2007, 10:34 AM

I think it will be a tough fight for Randy.
Scenarios:
-Randy takes GG down and gets BJJ dominated.
-Randy wins the striking battle (maybe), so GG takes him down and dominates BJJ.
-GG takes it straight to the ground and GNP/subs Randy.
I hope he proves me wrong, but this is a bad matchup for Randy.

Sanosuke · 08-13-2007, 10:41 AM

Personally, I just don't see Randy submitting to GG at all. I agree that if Randy wins it will be by a decision and if Gonzaga wins it will be by TKO.

ndwolfwood · 08-13-2007, 10:45 AM

Gonzaga via Barnett ownage.

It will be the exact same fight sans controversy.

Morgoth · 08-13-2007, 10:49 AM

I also agree that this is a REAL challenge for Randy. But I think until you've either rolled with or fought Randy, he just is completely different and STRONGER than you realize. That seems to be every fighter's stance after they've lost to him.

I'll be interested to see how he handles Gonzilla. Allot of people don't seem to think much of him but I was beyond impressed by his showing against Mirko and not just because of the KO. Rather the standup pressure he put on Mirko and his prowess on the ground. He mauled CroCop. This wasn't anything like the Kevin Randelman fight which was more like a flash KO and finish. Gonzaga just dominated Mirko at every turn. It was scary.

I do think that there's something to be said for Randy's place in MMA right now. Nothing to lose. No mater what he does, he's accomplished more than, I think, anyone else will for a very long time. I doubt he'll try and fight a safe fight. His grappling is good enough that we may see him try to submit Gonzaga... which would be cool.

My pick? Tough one. After the Sylvia fight, I gotta pick Randy by TKO in Round 2.

**KnockoutProcess** · 08-13-2007, 10:59 AM

Stand up, Randy would land many more strikes and duck most of what GG would bring. Randy's standup is more solid every fight, I swear. However, Randy's standup KO power is somewhat lacking. GG would just need to land one. See Scherner on that.

On the ground, it's wrestling master against BJJ guru. Both top of their ground game and both very strong in this area. I don't think either guy has really ever faced someone like they're both seeing this time.

However, keys to this one, IMO, is all in the mind. They're both chess masters at this. I'm very sure they've watched every single frame of each other's fights looking for behaviors, steps, moves, weaknesses, what to avoid, all of it.

If GG comes in with anything of a swollen ego from the CC win or favored status in this fight, he will be humbled. If he takes it humble, focuses on the job at hand and treats Randy like the best fighter he's ever met (which is he), then GG can put together a game plan to win, IMO. I'm a huge Randy fan and always will be, but I really think it's GG's turn now.

Zeke's Chaingun · 08-13-2007, 11:07 AM

As Randy said, this is the harder match up style wise over Cro Cop. Gonzaga is a big, strong, skilled grappler. I would imagine Randy is going to use his wrestling to keep the fight up and test his boxing skills against Gonzaga. He always has the clinch and the top position to resort to if trading on the feet isn't going as planned.