[adavis]

To say that either of these fighters has not improved is ridiculous, Chuck is better than he was, and Rampage is in a much better training situation than he was at the tail end of his time in Pride.

Relevant factors to consider for this fight that were a factor the first time:

Whether Chucks punches "hurt" Rampage or not, unchecked they can knock out pretty much anybody.

Chuck is a counterpuncher. Quinton may claim that Chucks shots don't hurt, but he sure made sure to not take any flush the first time they went at it. Page stayed in the pocket throughout the majority of the stand up with a fairly basic but smart strategy, Chuck takes a shot to give one so Rampage made sure to give and not take. What impressed me and continues to impress me about that fight was how Jackson never got greedy. He'd throw a solid jab and immediately pull his hands back into a protective stance, whether he thought it damaged Liddell or not (basically the exact opposite of Babalu).

Liddell may or may not have been physically hurt in that fight, it's never been officially confirmed. But there's no doubt about one thing: mentally he was not in the best spot. Dana had been over seeing his training and I have no doubt putting tremendous pressure on him to win the tournament. So not only did Chuck have the stress of his boss desperately wanting him to win, he knew his last two fights were less than perfect. Couture slowly dismantled him, and Overeem provided some serious problems for a couple minutes.

Knowing all of the above, one would have to assume that Liddell desperate for a title shot, possibly injured and fighting a battle that almost undoubtably felt just like the Couture fight only worse and in a different country had to be quickly mentally demoralizing. That coupled with a possible injury and a boss desperate for you to beat Wanderlei Silva makes Chucks loss seem less than surprising.

Rampage DESPERATELY wanted to fight Wanderlei, they were supposed to match up for a title shot when Pride announced the GP. Rampage had the exact opposite pressures going into the fight than Liddell did. His boss didn't care if he won or lost. He was considered an underdog against Liddell or Silva. He was very comfortable fighting in Japan, and the crowd loved him. He was coming off a very hard fought victory over a game Murilo Bustamente, an oppenent Jackson knew about for all of two days before their fight. Jackson couldn't have been more perfectly set with his me against the world attitude to desperately want to finish the fight with Liddell.

Relevant factors to consider for this fight:

Chuck has not lost since the last time these two guys fought, he has also avenged every loss he's ever had in mma besides this one.

Rampage has lost, and he's also been knocked out three times. Yes three and no I'm not counting the loss to Shogun. Rampage was knocked out twice by Wanderlei, and also briefly by Ricardo Arona. Although Jackson did go on to win that fight, he was knocked out in a way that no North American ref (and I'm guessing all but one Asian ref) would miss. Granted that fight did take place in an era of Pride were some serious brutality was required to stop a fight (See Kharitonov/Schilt and Wanderlei/Kondo).

In addition to those KO losses Rampage also was brutalized by Mauricio Rua, won a very shady decision to the older Rua brother, and squeaked by Yoon Dong Sik and Matt Lindland.
Lets break those down.

In his fight with Ninja, both men looked fairly bad. Quinton was coming off of a very dissapointing and serious KO to Silva, and was apparently in the middle of some real training issues. In any case this fight sucked, Jackson was so unhappy with his "win", he attempted to give his victory trophy to Ninja.

Shogun broke Quintons ribs in their fight at Total Elimination yet despite repeated requests from Jackson to his corner, they refused to throw in the towel or set up a doctors stoppage making for a very nice addition to Shoguns record and a really ugly loss on Rampages'.

The win over Sik was another rotten fight, and only made Sik look decent against his much bigger opponent. The Lindland fight is hard to judge because very few people look good against him, but the split decision is easy to argue for either man. Jacksons most recent fight was an ok showing against Marvin Eastmen that he won by KO.

Jackson is in a new camp now and seems happy there. However he did want to wait fior this fight.

Chuck has beaten Couture twice, Tito twice, Babalu, Jeremy Horn, and Vernon White in the time since their last meeting. Not quite the caliber of fighters that Rampage has fought (on the high end, certainly better on the low end) since then but that's irrelevant, Chuck won all of his fights and looked good doing it. Rampage lost several of his and even some of his victories were sloppy/arguable.

For Rampage to win he must stay in the pocket and not get greedy. Chuck has proven in both of his "recent" losses that he will and can take a tremendous amount of damage before he can be put on his back. Jackson needs to take his time, circle to the left and touch Liddell with hands at every available opportunity.

For Chuck to win either Rampage needs to forget the gameplan he had in their first fight, or Chuck needs to make this his fight just like he has against both of the men who have beaten him and what he is certainly planning on doing here.

Did I miss anything?

[Strict Nine]

Very nice break down, and good points.

I'm picking Chuck, but his cardio will have to be at its best this time if he wants to win. He could win quickly, but he has to be ready to fight for 25 mins if need be. I can't wait.

[adavis]

Originally Posted by Strict Nine

Very nice break down, and good points.

I'm picking Chuck, but his cardio will have to be at its best this time if he wants to win. He could win quickly, but he has to be ready to fight for 25 mins if need be. I can't wait.

I'm glad you liked it. This fight should be awesome, I'm having a very hard time picking a winner. All the recent upsets make my head hurt and I'm not sure that a win for either one of these guys would be an upset.

[AUSSIEMMAFAN]

Sounds about spot on to me this will be a very interesting fight indeed, if only to see how different these two really are since their first fight.

[adavis]

Ttt.

[MethadoneMan]

I wonder how Chuck's knee is. If Chuck doesn't KO Rampage in the first 3 rounds I think it's all Rampage. I'm picking Rampage to win in the 4th round.

[adavis]

Originally Posted by MethadoneMan

I wonder how Chuck's knee is. If Chuck doesn't KO Rampage in the first 3 rounds I think it's all Rampage. I'm picking Rampage to win in the 4th round.

I agree with the thinking, not the pick (currently). Rampage could win, and if I were to pick him it would be for around that time frame, I just can't decide yet.

[ICS039]

i agree with almost everything that you said, but i'd like to know when during the fight with Arona did 'page get KOd? would it happen to be after the heel kick to the head when he was talking to the ref?

[adavis]

Originally Posted by ICS039

i agree with almost everything that you said, but i'd like to know when during the fight with Arona did 'page get KOd? would it happen to be after the heel kick to the head when he was talking to the ref?

Yep. Arona was telling the ref that Rampage was out. Portuguese and Japanese make for a heck of a language barrier, and by the time the point was made Jackson was awake. Aronas next few fights were all about overfinishing.

[Krossinc]

Originally Posted by adavis

Yep. Arona was telling the ref that Rampage was out. Portuguese and Japanese make for a heck of a language barrier, and by the time the point was made Jackson was awake. Aronas next few fights were all about overfinishing.

Do yourself a favor and go rewatch the fight. Cut up your volume REAL high and you can hear Quinton say that's he's not out.