Originally Posted by frontround
Ok, so here's the extremely long (and extremely good) fight analysis:
Sherk has explosive TDs and monstrous cardio, to go with the experience of being in 5 round wars, excellent strength, short burst quickness and good boxing skills. He has demonstrated the ability to grind guys out for the decision, while completely controlling the tempo and against Hermes (who granted, was injured) that he can outposition against a black belt guard. He's a hard worker who understands his body and how to prepare. Not only that, but he has extra motivation because BJ pissed him off by calling him out for cheating. He seriously has one of the hardest heads I've ever seen... taking knee after perfectly landed knee from Franca.
On the flipside, I've noticed in a lot of his fights Sherk is susceptible to the jab. His TD defense is hardly perfect as he was taken down repeatedly in his fights against Matt Hughes and GSP. He also tends to telegraph his outside shots, even when he sets them up with strikes (this is why he kept getting kneed upside his head by Hermes and why Nick Diaz did a pretty good job defending). He's a short guy which means he's not going to really pick BJ apart from the outside and most people would argue that he's not a credible threat for positioning or submissions against BJ (though you never really know) and he tends to neglect the sort of active, agressive GnP that can get TKOs. Sherk can be cut. It's happened before and could certainly happen again... we all saw how that can affect a guy when BJ fought Joe Daddy. Finally, against GSP, Sherk proved he's a dude that can get bullied around and finished. If BJ mounts Sherk, he might not be able to mentally handle that.
BJ is quick, rangy, big for LW and has really good TD defense. His jiu-jitsu skills for mma are great, as seen in his ability to easily outposition really good ground fighters, executing his GnP and work for the back. He has great top control, heavy hands, a good chin and a serious mean streak. He's tough as hell and does not get intimidated or bullied in the ring... ever. His head movement according to Marcus Davis (who would know) is awesome and he's a finisher. He stays active in the guard and is good at scrambling back to his feet.
On the other hand, his cardio is considered a pretty big question mark; he's not shown (to the best of my memory) dominating strength like Hughes or GSP and he tends to be too complacent when he's pinned against the cage, preferring to defend the TD, rather than escape the position. His guard for all the talk of it being dangerous, is not BJ's strongest area in the grappling phase of a fight. He hasn't tapped someone from guard in an MMA bout and was controlled fairly well there by several guys (though he did transition to the back in Hughes II and can hit those crazy gogoplata attempts from there).
So how do they match up? BJ strikes from the outside, exchanging less than he normally does and looks to takedown as soon as Sherk wills his way inside. He stalks Sherk to force the exchange and keep from being pressed into the cage. If he gets top, Sherk has the ability to escape, but if BJ keeps getting his slam TDs, that's bad news for Sherk. I think Sherk will look to move inside and throw hard body punches inside to wear BJ down and try to bully his way into the fence to tire BJ out even more ala Matt Hughes and GSP. If he gets BJ down he'll try to keep the pace, without losing position (basically put a lot weight of weight on BJ and hold him there with pitty patter GnP). He'll try to pass over and over... and fail, ulimately working toward that boring grind-out decision win that he's known for (once BJ starts to tire out).
I can visualize Sherk getting a GSP-BJ style decision, punctuated by cage pinning, lots of pass attempts and BJ getting exhausted. I can also see him landing good body shots and getting the TKO on a worn out BJ. BJ can tap Sherk from the top or the bottom. He can TKO him on the ground with elbows. He can take down, trade, pass guard and win that sort of all-around decision. He can get the KO standing.
As far as who will dictate, it's hard to say, but my money's on BJ beating Sherk up, breaking him down psychologically and finishing with his favorite arm pin RNC.
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