My gameplan for GSP v. Penn

DPK325 · 07:02 AM

If I was making a plan for GSP, this is what I would suggest, and this is how I see him winning. It's sort of how Fedor beat Nog, but a little more cautious.

First, we all know both Penn and GSP can box. I see Georges keeping the fight standing for the whole first round. He has excellent takedown defense, and unless he slips like Hughes, I think the taller, much stronger St-Pierre's sprawl will be unbeatable (GSP probably has 25 more pounds of pure muscle and a couple inches of leverage advantage). I think for the first round, St-Pierre and Penn will exchange standing, with St-Pierre's reach and strength advantage getting the better of Penn, but only very slightly. I don't think anyone in WW hits harder than St-Pierre, except maybe Riggs and Lawler, and they aren't as technical. Although Penn has been hit by and withstood bigger men (Machida), I think at the very worst, St-Pierre can keep the whole round standing without recieving any major punishment and maybe even "rocking" Penn once, or at least sending him staggering/scrambling enough to win him the round 10-9, but fairly even.

The second round is where I see a noticeable advantage developing. Both fighters will be sweaty and Penn may be fatigued. GSP, as always, will be just as fresh as if he hadn't yet stepped on the mat. After a high kick or two, GSP will either continue to engage standing (depending on how last round went) or will shoot under a punch for a brute strength bullrush takedown, like he did against Sherk. I don't think Penn can stop his takedown. Even if he has to lift the smaller Penn off the ground to do it, he will. If Hughes can lift Trigg and carry him halfway across the octagon, the arguably stronger St-Pierre can lift the lighter Penn enough to drop him on his butt.

From here, he should either try to pass to half guard and initiate G'n'P, or start some G'n'P from a standing/open guard, if Penn offers one. I wouldn't get too up close and personal with the G'n'P at the risk of being sucked right into a tight full guard, not only minimizing G'n'P damage but increasing his chances to get a deep sub. If he can stay out of a closed guard, I think he should do that and attempt to drop some huge fists until he can work to half guard or side, (doubt BJ will give him the mount) where he can work elbows from up close and either go for a bad cut or a stoppage, or start working for another 10-9 round.

During the G'n'P, Penn will almost certainly catch GSP in a tight guard once or twice. However, at this point, both fighters will be slippery. After the first round or two, armlocks become much harder, and strangles become more the focus. If GSP finds himself in a tight guard, instead of trying to pass and risk getting swept or leaving an arm behind for a triangle, ot he should continue to stay busy with short elbows, which is never any problem for him and his Tito-esque cardio. From here, maybe he can get a standup from the ref, rather than risking a guard escape himself. If not, the sweat on his arms, his insane strength, and his flexibility/resiliency to tap will allow him to get out of any sub that isnt very deeply set. I think it was Parisyan who almost had him in a shoulderlock or armbar that looked simply awful - pretty much textbook and really set in there deep -- but St-Pierre rolled out of it and tugged it out on strength alone. In the late rounds, this will be easier.

If there isnt a referee stoppage in the second round, I see the third round showing St-Pierre use his superior cardio to counterpunch/lightly engage Penn on his feet and protect a decision. At the end of a fight, St-Pierre's form is nearly always tight - fists up, punches crisp, and he catches a lot of his tired opponents throwing sloppy jabs and with their fists at their chest on defense. Will this be Penn? I don't know his cardio. If Penn is fatigued and has his hands down, or if Penn got enough close submission attempts that the round scoring isn't yet clear, St-Pierre, who nearly always seems to have a full tank left, could possibly try to end with a full force flury, possibly putting down Penn if his hands and jaw are both sagging from fatigue or taking him down near the end for a little more G'n'P.

I really do see GSP winning in this way and not much Penn can do to control the fight - I think GSP can take the fight where he wants it and keep it there, wherever he chooses. But with someone as good at submissions as Penn, all your planning can go down the drain in 3 seconds with one deep armbar, so you never know. If someone wants to comment on this or write an alternate gameplan for how they see BJ winning, I'd be interested

TheOne · 03-04-2006, 06:44 AM

I see Penn rocking GSP early in the first round, taking it to the ground and submitting him.

GomiIsMyHero · 03-04-2006, 06:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOne

I see Penn rocking GSP early in the first round, taking it to the ground and submitting him.

Unlikely, when penn moved up in weight he lost his hand speed. He no longer has KO power. Penn can win by sub or decision. I just feel that GSP is too strong, determined, and skilled for BJ. It is GSP's world and we all just live in it.

DPK325 · 03-04-2006, 06:48 AM

i suppose that's possible. has anyone really rocked GSP yet though, and do you think a natural lightweight, as awesome as Penn is, has the power for that? not denying, just wondering

jager · 03-04-2006, 07:00 AM

it is gsp's fight to lose he will dominat like he did to sherk and trigg and miller

Sidious-at-205 · 03-04-2006, 07:01 AM

Remember though, this IS a fight and not a fantasy match up, so whatever anyone thinks, we will find out tonight!

Also, in a fight, anything can and quite often does, happen.

I love these two guys, and am torn between who to support. And I really can't work out who I think will win. All I've heard really is some people saying GSP will win easily, and the others saying BJ will win easily. I think its a much closer fight than anybody thinks.

tank666 · 03-04-2006, 07:06 AM

i love gsp but think he will catch bj with a good strike, move in for the kill and then get careless and get subbed. hope im wrong.

ZodiacKiller · 03-04-2006, 07:08 AM

I see a fighter in GSP who really hasnt faced anyone and except for Hughes and when he did he gave up!....

Penn by DOMINATION. GSP is stepping into a whole different class here.

DPK325 · 03-04-2006, 07:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sidious-at-205

Remember though, this IS a fight and not a fantasy match up, so whatever anyone thinks, we will find out tonight!

Also, in a fight, anything can and quite often does, happen.

I love these two guys, and am torn between who to support. And I really can't work out who I think will win. All I've heard really is some people saying GSP will win easily, and the others saying BJ will win easily. I think its a much closer fight than anybody thinks.

i totally agree. i dont think anyone will win easily. i think GSP will control the pace and take the fight wherever he wants it to go. but that doesnt mean he will dominate while he is there.

the thing is that close fights between submission guys and GnP guys usually seem and are scored less closely than they should be, because even if the submission guy had a few close ones where he almost caught him. he often took a bloody pounding the whole time.

but yes, in any fight, ANYTHING can happen. a gameplan is your ideal - what you hope to stick to in order to have the greatest chance to win - not what actually will happen

DPK325 · 03-04-2006, 07:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZodiacKiller

I see a fighter in GSP who really hasnt faced anyone and except for Hughes and when he did he gave up!....

Penn by DOMINATION. GSP is stepping into a whole different class here.

I think it is unfair to say he gave up v. hughes. even one extra second in an armbar can cause a snap and ruin your career (at age 22, who would risk that?) I think he just knew it was too deep. Look at some of the kimuras and stuff he has fought his way out of that looked desperate before.