[HipnotiK925]

let's break this down... here's some points to why i believe this...

1) Shogun > Chuck, most people know if they fought it could go either way, but as far as rankings and common opponents (besides babalu when shogun was green) it's clear that Shogun > Chuck

2) Jardine > Griffin, self explanatory, jardine KO'd forrest and made him cry

3) Forrest doesn't have big KO power

4) Jardine does have KO power

5) Chuck was ko'd in his last fight (flash ko, but still) shogun was not

basically the only way i see forrest beating shogun is by decision. there is no way forrest is gonna submit or KO shogun, not a chance in hell.

i also don't really see jardine beating chuck, but chuck's style is to stand and trade, which gives jardine a chance to land a big strike, the only way i see jardine beating chuck is by ko/tko



my conclusion is that jardine has a much better shot of beating chuck, than forrest does of beating shogun, a lot of people are saying stuff like forrest is gonna outbox shogun or land a big shot, when has forrest ever been a big puncher?? as much as i'd like to see forrest win, it's not gonna happen. shogun is gonna win in impressive fashion, either by sub or tko, this fight is not gonna go to decision


tell me what you think is the more likely upset to happen

[IrishKing]

probably true but Liddel's accuracy will make it tough on Jardine.

[MMAfanboy]

No shit.

[KoscheckBaby]

I raised the question weeks ago about which one would be the bigger upset. You make a good case there why Forrest beating Shogun would be more surprising. Forrest doesn't really have that puncher's chance in this fight, since we've seen him throw the kitchen sink at guys like Bonnar and not do dick

[crystianna]

i agree with you for the most part.

if forest wins, it will most likely be by decision in 3.

if jardine wins, it will most likely be by lucky punch

however, i think tha forest has a better chance of winning than jardine does by the exact reverse of the logic you used.

i think that shogun will come out strong and underestimate forests tenacity to stick in there (ortiz v griffen anyone?)

whereas i think that chuck will look to end the fight quickly and not give jardine any opportunity to hang in there for a decision.

[NyGiant]

liddells my guy but griffin beating shogun imo is a bigger upset than jardine over chuck

[KoscheckBaby]

Originally Posted by NyGiant

liddells my guy but griffin beating shogun imo is a bigger upset than jardine over chuck

We suck this year. Top 5 draft pick in April to look forward to though

[devante]

disagree if liddel is even a shell of the guy he used to be jardine is meat; not that jardine is not tough or have heavy hands, he just has a style that plays to chucks strength/strategy...

there is nothing jardine can or will do that can eff attack chucks weakpoints, jardines boxing is ok..his muay thai is pretty good. Unfortunately that won't be enough off and his def is non existent; not to mention his chin is very shaky.

BONNAR DROPPED HIM TWICE-an he can't crack an egg w/his shots...


rua has a huge hole in his game, wrestling; an if forrest plays close to vest and fights intelligently as he is capable of doing he will win a dec outworking rua, who fights in spots.

as long as griffin stays sharp and maintains pressure and stays busy he will win a tight decision. Unless he gets caught in one of the SPOTS where rua explodes and gets busy.

[HipnotiK925]

Originally Posted by KoscheckBaby

We suck this year. Top 5 draft pick in April to look forward to though

holy crap our defense sucks, our offense isn't that bad, but our D, OMG



and sorry to anyone that says i'm stating the obvious, but i've seen a lot more people on here talkin about how forrest is gonna upset shogun and hardly any saying jardine is gonna beat chuck

[juggo]

I think an argument could be made the other way.

For instance:

1) Shogun is making his UFC debut and hasn't fought in a cage in years (since tapping to Babalu). This is Chuck's home.

2) Shogun will be adapting to rules that are relatively new to him. He did beat Overeem and Randleman under NSAC rules, but kicks/stomps/knees on the ground are a big part of his striking game and adjusting to that may take more than the 6 minutes he's fought in his two recent US fights.

3) Jardine is coming off a brutal KO. Griffin is not.

4) Style matchup. Shogun's standup since the injury hasn't been all that great. He beat Nakamura and Randleman with his superior bjj/ground. Nakamura arguably got the better of the exchanges on the feet. The Snake was more than competitive with him in the standup until the stomps. He looked for takedowns and finished with GnP against Overeem. Griffin's best chance will be outboxing Shogun and trying to stay on his feet. Jardine, meanwhile, will not be able to take Chuck down (if Couture, Babalu and Tito haven't been able to, why would Jardine?), and will be forced to play into Chuck's game of standing and looking for the big shot. At least Griffin will start the fight in a position that is potentially advantageous or at least, much better than it would be on the ground with Shogun.

5) Are we so sure that Jardine's power is that much greater than Griffin's? Against Griffin, Keith landed one punch which stagged Griffin and had to follow up with a boatload of lefts and rights just to get Griffin to go down and then needed 5-6 solid shots on the ground to put him away. Griffin does have a pretty good chin, but that isn't what I instantly recognize as KO power. The only other guy Jardine has finished in the UFC is Kerry Schall due to leg kicks. Griffin finished Sinosic with strikes, dropping him with a left hook. All of Sinosic's other KO/TKO losses have been caused by GnP (cut stoppages to Tito and Tanner, GnP TKO stoppage to Bisping).