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Oddly enough Rich is still a fairly untested commodity. I know it's odd to say that about the former middleweight champion, but he's faced 1 top level competitor and he came up on the losing side twice in devastating fashion. I'm not counting Machida as that was very early in his career. So Rich has one elite caliber fighter he can't beat who is ranked as the best in the world by some, and a slew of people below top notch that he has crushed. That leaves all the area in between that he hasn't been tested against.
I'd say the odds are pretty fair.
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