Elbows to a downed opponent's head, statistics

[Scotty B]

Originally Posted by groo

I think the argument was not only the cut stoppages, but also that elbows DON'T finish fights but fuck up fighters faces with scar tissue and all........

Cmon man, all I hear on here is to bring stomps and kicks to the head of a downed opponent back....that shit can cause brain damage yet so many of you have more problems with the elbows, why cause of scar tissue? Doesn't make sense.

[galathrax]

Originally Posted by eworden78

galathrax

The reason you're wrong about the thread starters premise is this:
Premature endings are bad, whether the are caused by elbows or not.

If
total premature stoppages = 4%
4% < significant
total premature stoppages >= premature stoppages caused by elbows
Then
premature stoppages caused by elbows < significant

The only part you can argue is whether or not 4% is a significant percentage of total of fights.

Uh, I'm confused.

If you're evaluating the stoppage rate for a particular technique (ie, elbows causing cuts), then you have to use the occurance rate for that technique. If the technique is not used in a fight, then that fight should not be included in the sample size of fights where that technique is used and causes premature stoppage.

I'm not arguing that it's a small number. It is a small number. I'm arguing that it's more than 4%, because the sample size should be smaller to only include fights where elbows are used at all.

Your point about significance overall is moot, because who cares if elbows as a whole cause a significant # of premature stoppages... I care about : IF elbows are used, do they cause premature stoppages. You could make headbutts legal, and only 5 fighters in the sport use them, but they use them to cause premature stoppages. The relative number is small, only 4% of fights end by headbutts, but EVERY TIME headbutts are used they cause premature stoppages... THAT'S the # you should be looking at.

With elbows, it's nowhere near every time. It's not even most of the time. I doubt it's more than 10%. But it's not 4%. That is all.

Originally Posted by Zeke's Chaingun

Which point? You have a whole bunch of things that you were saying. Narrow it down for me.

I was just pointing out the sample size was wrong. I agree with you that elbows don't cause a significant # of stoppages. Page 11 has the posts.

[cavman]

Originally Posted by Metalhead82

Finally someone got the stats on this. I have always wondered why some people thought elbows stopped so many fights, its simply not true. Thanks for the research.

It became a bigger deal when a "tuffer"(Kenny Florian), won some fights with them. The crow's elbows were fine but Florian's weren't a couple of years ago.

[Zeke's Chaingun]

Originally Posted by galathrax

I was just pointing out the sample size was wrong. I agree with you that elbows don't cause a significant # of stoppages. Page 11 has the posts.

That's going to be a very difficult thing to figure out. Almost every fight I've seen that lasts longer than 2 minutes has an elbow thrown, but to actually go through every fight to see and then draw a statistic... that's going to take a lot of time. We might as well start counting the number of elbows thrown in comparision to each cut stoppage while we are at it. I think the threadstarter's analysis says enough. The % of fights compared to the actual number of fights ending by premature elbow stoppage is very small. Elbows can play a significant role in combat and MMA, and thus I want them in there. We saw that with CC. We now see that his skill in ground defense wasn't as tight as we suspected, and that's important.

[Zeke's Chaingun]

Originally Posted by cavman

It became a bigger deal when a "tuffer"(Kenny Florian), won some fights with them. The crow's elbows were fine but Florian's weren't a couple of years ago.

I do think that some fighters tend to get them more, Florian and the Crow being two of them, but they also are fighters who are masters of launching devastating strikes with their elbows. Elbow strikes is a technique, and some use them very masterfully.

[galathrax]

Originally Posted by cavman

It became a bigger deal when a "tuffer"(Kenny Florian), won some fights with them. The crow's elbows were fine but Florian's weren't a couple of years ago.

This isn't entirely accurate...

The Crow threw 'bos with the intent of ending fights. They looked nasty as hell.

KenFlo through little panzy 'bos, and only his incredibly bony structure allowed him to cut his opponents. He usually was losing his fight before he cut his opponent as well.

And yeah, a lot of people don't like TUFers. But what you gonna do?

Originally Posted by Zeke's Chaingun

That's going to be a very difficult thing to figure out. Almost every fight I've seen that lasts longer than 2 minutes has an elbow thrown, but to actually go through every fight to see and then draw a statistic... that's going to take a lot of time. We might as well start counting the number of elbows thrown in comparision to each cut stoppage while we are at it. I think the threadstarter's analysis says enough. The % of fights compared to the actual number of fights ending by premature elbow stoppage is very small. Elbows can play a significant role in combat and MMA, and thus I want them in there. We saw that with CC. We now see that his skill in ground defense wasn't as tight as we suspected, and that's important.

It might be difficult, but it's an actual, accurate, honest reflection of elbows and cut stoppages.

I also want elbows included. I think it's a small number. But it's not 4%. That's almost de minimus, and makes people who complain look like they have actually no point whatsoever. They have a small point.

[cavman]

[quote=bALZAC;15894688]I don't like elbows for a different reason. it minimizes the space the fighter in top position has to give in order to strike. It also minimizes the need to be an accurate striker, since dropping elbows from 6 inches is a lot easier than raising up, and punching to the face.
QUOTE]

This is why Fedor is considered GOD!!!

[eworden78]

Originally Posted by galathrax

Uh, I'm confused.

If you're evaluating the stoppage rate for a particular technique (ie, elbows causing cuts), then you have to use the occurance rate for that technique. If the technique is not used in a fight, then that fight should not be included in the sample size of fights where that technique is used and causes premature stoppage.

I'm not arguing that it's a small number. It is a small number. I'm arguing that it's more than 4%, because the sample size should be smaller to only include fights where elbows are used at all.

Your point about significance overall is moot, because who cares if elbows as a whole cause a significant # of premature stoppages... I care about : IF elbows are used, do they cause premature stoppages. You could make headbutts legal, and only 5 fighters in the sport use them, but they use them to cause premature stoppages. The relative number is small, only 4% of fights end by headbutts, but EVERY TIME headbutts are used they cause premature stoppages... THAT'S the # you should be looking at.

With elbows, it's nowhere near every time. It's not even most of the time. I doubt it's more than 10%. But it's not 4%. That is all.




I was just pointing out the sample size was wrong. I agree with you that elbows don't cause a significant # of stoppages. Page 11 has the posts.

You're right that these numbers alone do not prove anything. But coupled with the most basic knowledge of MMA the are a rational indicator.

We all know as MMA fans(if you're not I don't know why your on this site), that GNP is a major aspect of MMA and that elbows, when legal are a major tool of GNP.

We can thus rationally expect that elbows are used in a significant percentage of MMA bouts in which they are legal. We don't need statistics for this.

Matches without elbows are significant in this question, the frequency of use is a factor in their danger.

For instance, I don't care about premature stoppages caused by triple backflip crescent kicks, because they don't happen very often. Even if it was 100% it wouldn't matter why ban something that happens rarely.

[SlapBack]

Originally Posted by Vox

Ok, let's see if I can save myself from the white-belt's-first-post stigma with this post.

A few days ago, in a blog out there, somebody clamored, as often happens, for elbows to the head of a downed opponent to be thrown out of the rulebook, because they stop too many fights due to cuts.

A couple of weeks ago, in one of sherdog's radio shows (can't remember which one), one of the hosts also mentioned this belief, and then said that he and his co-host didn't have any data to support or deny this belief.

So...finally tired of hearing arguments based on "I think" and "I believe" I decided to go look for the data.

I went through the results in the fightfinder from UFC 30 to UFC72, with all UFN and TUF finales included, and got the following numbers:

Events: 58
Fights: 457
Stoppages marked as "doctor stoppage" or "cuts": 19

So...4.15% of the fights between UFC30 and UFC72 have been stopped by a doctor or by cuts. Out of these 19, one for sure was a leg injury (Irvin's busted knee), one was an arm injury (Tim Silvia v. Mir) and I'm sure there are other non-elbow-hit related injuries that I just don't remember and didn't have the video to check out.

So...let's concede that there's 17 fights stopped from cuts resulting from elbows to the head of a downed opponent. only 3.71% of fights in the last 58 UFC events have been stopped because of cuts done with elbows (remember, this is a supposition, because there's plenty of "doctor stoppage" without a reason in the fightfinder).

In case anybody is curious, I also pulled out other data for the last 15 UFC PPVs, like knockouts and submissions and so on...you can follow the thread <a href="http://ufcmania.com/2007/06/16/ufc-72-recap-franklin-griffin-earn-decisions/">here</a> My posts are under the same nick as here, Vox.

So...3.71% of fights being stopped this way is enough reason for elbows to be outlawed in MMA? Not in my opinion...what about in yours?

Guess what. There's a whole big world out there. Time to get a life.

[IrvineFighter]

Originally Posted by kaipo13

Elbows should be kept in, but knees, soccer kicks and foot stomps to a downed opponent should also be allowed IMO.

I disagree. I never liked the knees and foot stomps to downed opponents. But elbows are OK with me b/c it at least requires you to bring yourself into proximity to the other guy and risk your own injury in the process.