CroCop CAN DEFINATELY LOSE To Randy...

[SnakeEyes]

People on here are seriously overestimating Mirko on these forums, and I have yet to see anyone put together a decent analysis of this fight, taking into account each fighters history and the types of opponents they've faced.

In the HW division, Randy has always been able to come on top when it comes to HW who can bang (and in fact is consistently underatted/under-dogged for fights he has with guys who like to stand and trade). Examples are his wins over Rizzo, Smith, Belfort, Sylvia and to a lesser extent because of weight, Liddell. The big exceptions here are Barnett and Rodriguez, but that shouldn't worry people for several reasons. for one, Randy is obviously in extremely good shape, and IMO just displayed cardio and conditioning seemingly better than what he showed in his last two HW outings. Also, Rodriguez and Barnett were able to put Randy away because they had grappling backgrounds, coupled with weight and raw power that enabled them to put Randy into the fence and pound away. This is NOT something Mirko will able to accomplish; despite what anyone might foolishly say, a GnP win on Crocop's part would be a HUGE surprise. Although crazier things have happened (like Mirko getting KO'ed by Randleman), it is not within the realm of the LIKELY.

Furthermore, Randy's penchant for taking it to the last round poses a problem for Mirko. This is exactly where he has always had trouble, and it's what Fedor was able to capitalize on in their fight: Mirko tends to lose will and drive when a fighter frustrates him. And while he has had knockout successes over wrestlers in the past (Coleman, Waterman, etc.), he has yet to come across a Wrestler who can manhandle him greco-roman style from the clinch (like Randy, whose skills as a GR wrestler are ahead of anything Mirko has faced) and yet can also pull out surprising gameness on the feet. To me, Randy's skills as a striker are often underestimated, and I would put him ahead of Barnett in terms of striking because Randy tends to initiate stand-up wars in a way that are way more intelligent and seasoned than anything Barnett has tried. Big guys who have tried to come out and brawl with Mirko have had their asses handed to them (i.e Alexander, Vov, Silva), but Randy will never be that stupid. Also, we've seen in the case of Fedor and Randleman that Crocop CAN be surprised.

In the end, Randy's biggest challenge will be dealing with the kick factor, which finds in Mirko it's best specialist in the sport, and something he hasn't had to deal with since his bouts with Rizzo. I figure that as always, Randy will come up with a plan. Mirko has proven he can stuff a shot, sure, but Greco guys like Couture don't rely on the shot, and in the UFC Randy's ability to close the distance striking and wrestle his way against the fence gives him a huge edge in takedowns. If Mirko can get off early he has a kicker's chance, sure, but the edge in grappling, conditioning and venue all go to our boy Randy.

To be fair, Mirko deserves his slot in the top 5 HWs for sure. All I'm saying in this thread is that in the UFC, Randy's style matches up very badly for the former K1 champ. All this talk of Crocop "murdering" or "putting to sleep" the Team Quest Captain would have made some sense in a Pride ring, but unfortunately for Mirko thats not how it's going down. Mirko is amazing, no doubt, and it's fully within his ability to score a victory over ANY HW, including Fedor, on a given day. But to say that he is a favorite going into this match is ridiculous to me. The Octagon is Randy's world, and it will be Mirko who will have to adjust if he's to pull this off.

[Biggs34]

Good post. Makes a lot of sense.

This fight will be closer than most people expect.

[SnakeEyes]

I'm ttt'ing this because it got third paged right away. Lots of activity today...

[Juddy J]

You make good points. Good thread. Of course Randy has a legitimate shot of beating CC...I just think it is unlikely.

[SnakeEyes]

Originally Posted by Juddy J

Of course Randy has a legitimate shot of beating CC...I just think it is unlikely.

See, that's a sensible statement. I don't expect everyone to analyse this fight the same way I do, humans tend to have a wide range of intelligent opinions on any given subject. But the way some people carry on here is ridiculously narrow-minded.

[Sub Evil]

I think Randy's a huge underdog and I think that's rightly so. Crocop is a beast and he looked indestructible in the OWGP. But if Randy showed anything this weekend, it's that he's incredibly smart and knows how to put together a gameplan. And you just know he's going to watch that Fedor fight over and over and over again. So who knows...

[truth87]

dude, im not even gonna read the whole thang after i read the title lol, but u must have a good point.

Crocop is not Unbeatable, and randy has chances against him, not saying he randy has no chance of winning is just not right, its mma (anything can happened, u know u saw that flying armbar by u know who)

[razyrsharpe]

your post is very thoughtful and articulate. i agree with it 100% especially the part about Randy coming in with a plan. damn, does he do a good job of that! he is one of the absolute smartest fighters i have EVER seen, bar none. this is his GREATEST advantage at age 43. the mind is a dangerous thing. his victory saturday night was one of preparation first. ie, the first combination of the fight that dropped tim to his seat. randy talked about the prep he went through on that combo alone. Smart, Smart man.

[ballzweat]

I don't even know who to cheer for

[System]

If I didn't watch that fight on saturday, I'd say he had no chance against Cro Cop. Things are different now. If Randy is in shape like he was at UFC 68 and has the right gameplan, he has a great chance of upsetting Mirko. As it stands right now, I'd say Randy has the best chance of beating Mirko out of everyone in the current UFC heavyweight roster.