I think Sun's statement to her father that he's one of two people responsible for Jin's death because he put Jin on the flight is revealing. It goes to the theory that everyone was intentionally put there by someone.
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Originally Posted by balance
I think it's going to come down to a struggle between three sides who all have a vested interest in the island, a holy trinity of sorts. Dharma (who I believe wants to keep the island alive for the wrong reasons); Ben, Richard, and Jacob (who want to keep the island alive for the right reasons); and Widmore (who wants to destroy the island). All of the 815 survivors were somehow put on the flight and the island by one of the three.
I also think three very important families and men tie into this: the Shephards/Christian, the Widmores/Pene's father, and the Kwons/Sun's father. I think these families and men are the forces behind: the island, Widmore (obviously), and Dharma, respectively.
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And I think the Oceanic 6 are lying about the other survivors because they think it will keep those left behind out of some kind of danger.