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Originally Posted by BadassHo
go to strategypage.com
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That page hurts my eyes, it's so badly designed. Got a link to the specific article?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BadassHo
they could only close the straits with mines, and they can only keep that closed for 20-30 days maximum. the french, british, germans, dutch, italians, all of europe...they have support ships in the straits also plus minesweepers. they are there to assist our warships and to help open the straits. tehran closes those straits, and all the western world is against them, and we'll get help from israel. as isreal would be fighting hezbollah in lebanon but a full scale invasion wouldnt take isreal long to accomplish there.
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Are you sure of this? Iran doesn't just have mines, they also have large stockpiles of anti-ship missles, some quite modern but the vast majority are the old and reliable warhorse the Exocet.
An Exocet is not a great threat to modern warships but would wreck havoc on civilian ships. And it doesn't require a great deal of infrastructure, since they can be fired from ground-based trucks. In the rugged terrain of the Iranian coast, such units might lurk undetected even with intense air surveillance. And even if supressed, just the potential of being hit will make maritime insurance providers think twice about covering ships crossing the straits. Assurances of safety would have to be extended. That means boots on the ground and close escort by anti-missile vessels.
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Originally Posted by BadassHo
and irans real threats.......air, naval, and missile locations, anti aircraft and communications will be pulverized. quickly.
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No doubt they will take a drubbing, but all it takes for civilian vessels to become really skittish about crossing the straits is one hit. And I think the Iranians already have the assets in place to quickly close the straits. They aren't stupid, unlike Saddam Hussein.
Quite frankly my position is based more on market volatility than military concerns. The way things are right now, the markets will overreact to supply disruptions and any statements the US makes about safety or the length/nature of hostilities will be considered dubious due to the track record of false statements in the past(WMD's, greeted as liberators etc).
You just don't have upper hand in this conflict when you consider the big picture.