[crystianna]

There is no doubt that on paper, Shogun would be the clear winner of this match. However, that's why fights need to be fought. While it has no direct relevance to this fight, 2007 is the year of the upset and has certainly shown us that in sporting events, it's not over until it's over. Football, look at Michigan and Notre Dame. Fighting, look at Crocop, Gomi, Sylvia, GG, GSP.

So, this is why I think that Griffin can win:

1. Home court advantage. Shogun is fighting with new rules, new environment, and for all intents and purposes, new audience. As nearly every fighter new to the octogon has shown us, it takes time to adjust to these conditions and that additional level of stress can distract an elite athlete from performing his/her best.

2. Tenacious G. Forrest is like beef jerkey, he's tough. He has a bizarre way of hanging in there when all hope seems lost. In fact, the more bloodied he is, the more likely he is to perform better. Look at Ortiz v Griffin. Dominated round one only to come and certainly edge one round and in some people's opinion edge two.

3. Weight of the world. There is a freedom, a relief when you come to the realization that you have nothing to lose. This fight, regardless of the outcome will be a win-win situation for Forrest. He's a can, a gatekeeper. There is no pressure on him. If he lasts more than one round, in many people's eyes, he's already won. This pressure less, I win no matter what happens situation is liberating. On the other hand, Shogun has nothing but pressure. If he doesn't decisively win this match, he loses; not to even mention if the fight goes the distance. He will apply this mounting pressure (and distraction) to win this fight and win it decisively. And when he tries and Forrest doesn't crumble, it will plant a further seed of doubt and distraction into his heart and mind.

4. Distractions. Forrest is living fight to fight. He doesn't care who he fights next. He just wants to fight. I am sure, Shogun and his camp, like the rest of the world, is already planning five steps ahead to title fights and title defenses. He will not be focused on this fight. This is a stepping stone; a parlay to move onward.

5. Eye of the beholder. Everybody thinks Shogun should dominate, including the judges. So, a takedown by Shogun will be perceived as ok. A takedown by Forrest will be seen as huge. A glancing shot by Shogun will be, eeehhh, that was ok. A glancing shot by Forrest will be seen as a near knockout punch (see Ortiz v Griffin).

So, what do I think has a good likelyhood of happening?
Round 1: Shogun comes out strong and tries to finish Forrest. Forrest hangs in there and somehow makes it through round one. It's a dominant 10-9 round for Shogun (Shogun fans will claim it's a 10-8 round).

Round 2: Shogun has that look of doubt that Martin had with Leben: this match should be over already but it's not. He bloodies Forrest who grins, smiles, spits out a tooth and comes back with a flurry to push Shogun back the last minute of the round. It's a close round to score but with Forrest as the aggressor in the last minute he is percieved as the victor. It's a close 10-9 round for Griffin.

Round 3: The two come out circling each other. Desperate to win the match, Shogun engages in a fatigued slugfest with Forrest in the center of the octagon. He lands some good punchs and Griffin lands a few glancing blows as well (but remember point 5 from above). Round ends with cheering and screaming. This round could go either way.

Decision, Judge A 30-27 Shogun, Judge B 29-28 Griffin, Judge C 29-28 Griffin for a split decision. Shogun drops his head in defeat.

I am not saying that this is going to happen. Nobody knows until the fight is fought. But, I think this is closer to reality that a lot of you think.