[juggo]

I think an argument could be made the other way.

For instance:

1) Shogun is making his UFC debut and hasn't fought in a cage in years (since tapping to Babalu). This is Chuck's home.

2) Shogun will be adapting to rules that are relatively new to him. He did beat Overeem and Randleman under NSAC rules, but kicks/stomps/knees on the ground are a big part of his striking game and adjusting to that may take more than the 6 minutes he's fought in his two recent US fights.

3) Jardine is coming off a brutal KO. Griffin is not.

4) Style matchup. Shogun's standup since the injury hasn't been all that great. He beat Nakamura and Randleman with his superior bjj/ground. Nakamura arguably got the better of the exchanges on the feet. The Snake was more than competitive with him in the standup until the stomps. He looked for takedowns and finished with GnP against Overeem. Griffin's best chance will be outboxing Shogun and trying to stay on his feet. Jardine, meanwhile, will not be able to take Chuck down (if Couture, Babalu and Tito haven't been able to, why would Jardine?), and will be forced to play into Chuck's game of standing and looking for the big shot. At least Griffin will start the fight in a position that is potentially advantageous or at least, much better than it would be on the ground with Shogun.

5) Are we so sure that Jardine's power is that much greater than Griffin's? Against Griffin, Keith landed one punch which stagged Griffin and had to follow up with a boatload of lefts and rights just to get Griffin to go down and then needed 5-6 solid shots on the ground to put him away. Griffin does have a pretty good chin, but that isn't what I instantly recognize as KO power. The only other guy Jardine has finished in the UFC is Kerry Schall due to leg kicks. Griffin finished Sinosic with strikes, dropping him with a left hook. All of Sinosic's other KO/TKO losses have been caused by GnP (cut stoppages to Tito and Tanner, GnP TKO stoppage to Bisping).